What On-Chain Data Reveals

On-chain data shows that MARA executed several high-value transactions across different destinations. In a single transfer, approximately 653.773 BTC was sent to an address associated with Two Prime, a firm active in crypto lending and trading. At the time of the transaction, this transfer was valued at roughly $42.01 million. Shortly afterward, an additional 8.999 BTC, worth about $578,000, was sent to the same address.

Beyond this, MARA moved around 300 BTC in two separate transactions to a wallet linked to BitGo, a well-known digital asset custody provider. These transfers carried a combined value of approximately $20.4 million at execution. The company also transferred 305 BTC, valued near $20.72 million, to a newly created wallet. The dispersion of funds across multiple addresses has led to questions about whether these actions are purely operational or tied to liquidity management needs.

Mining Economics Under Pressure

Bitcoin has recently been trading just above $63,000, marking one of its lowest price ranges since October 2024. This decline has placed significant strain on mining economics. Lower prices directly reduce revenue, while fixed operational costs—especially energy—remain elevated.

Data referenced by Bloomberg indicates that the hash price index, a key metric for miner profitability, has dropped to around $0.03 per terahash. For miners operating with higher electricity costs, this level significantly compresses margins. Meanwhile, research firm Newhedge projects that the upcoming difficulty adjustment could result in a decline of more than 13%, potentially the sharpest drop since China’s 2021 mining ban.

Mining Stocks Reflect the Stress

Equity markets have not been immune to these pressures. MARA shares fell by more than 18%, while CleanSpark declined 19.13% and Riot Platforms dropped 14.7%. According to Google Finance data, MARA stock has lost over 30% in the past five days and 34% over the past month.

Additional pressure came from recent insider-related activity. On January 30, 2026, 14,301 common shares were withheld at $9.50 per share to cover tax obligations following the vesting of restricted stock units.

Energy Costs Add Another Layer of Risk

Beyond price action, miners have also faced operational challenges due to severe winter storms across parts of the United States. Regions such as Texas and Tennessee, which are critical hubs for mining activity, experienced power disruptions and rising energy costs. CleanSpark executive Harry Sudock noted that the current environment reflects a combination of market-driven selling pressure and weather-related operational strain.

Taken together, these factors suggest that Bitcoin miners may continue to navigate a challenging period, with liquidity management and cost control becoming increasingly critical in the months ahead.

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As of October 2–3, 2025, the total Bitcoin network hash rate surpassed 1.05 ZH/s. Mining difficulty increased 5% to 150.84 trillion (T), providing unprecedented computational power that secures the blockchain. Despite this, the hashprice—revenue per petahash—fell below $50, pressuring miners’ profitability. This is particularly challenging for miners with high energy costs.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty and Hash Rate: What It Means

Mining difficulty adjusts automatically every 2,016 blocks to maintain an average block time of 10 minutes and to secure the network. The adjustment reflects changes in the network’s hash rate. An increasing hash rate indicates more miners joining the network and using more computational power. This strengthens security but also raises hardware and energy costs.

MARA’s Bitcoin Treasury Reaches $6.4 Billion

U.S.-based Marathon Digital (MARA) added 373 BTC in September, bringing its total Bitcoin reserves to 52,850 BTC, valued at approximately $6.4 billion. The company mined 736 BTC during the month, representing 5.2% of total network miner rewards. MARA increased its hash rate by 1% to 60.4 EH/s and activated all mining containers at its Texas wind farm.

MARA produced 218 blocks in September, a 5% increase from the previous month. With a market value of around $7 billion, MARA is the third-largest publicly traded miner.

Cango Reserves Rise to 5,810 BTC

China-based Cango mined and held 616.6 BTC in September, raising its total Bitcoin treasury to 5,810 BTC (~$700 million). The company operates at a 50 EH/s hash rate, efficiently utilizing 89.7% of its capacity. CEO Paul Yu noted that this performance provides a strategic foundation for expansion into high-performance computing (HPC). According to Bitcoin Treasuries, Cango ranks 18th among publicly traded companies.

Bitcoin Price and Market Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading at $120,373. Public mining companies’ BTC reserves are as follows:

• Strategy (Michael Saylor): 640,031 BTC – $77 billion
• MARA: 52,850 BTC – $6.4 billion
• Tether-backed Twenty One: 43,514 BTC
• Metaplanet: 30,823 BTC
• Bitcoin Standard Treasury: 30,021 BTC

This data highlights that institutional accumulation of Bitcoin continues, with mining companies playing a critical role in the ecosystem.

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Record Revenue Amid Bitcoin Rally

On May 27, MARA reported the highest daily revenue in its history. The milestone was confirmed via on-chain data from CryptoQuant, as Bitcoin surged days earlier due to macroeconomic instability, notably in Japan’s bond markets.

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted, “Quarterly reports are slow. On-chain shows revenue in real time.”

BTC Holdings Top $5 Billion Despite Halving Impact

Despite a 19% drop in Bitcoin production due to the April 2024 halving, MARA’s treasury strategy remains aggressive. With 48,237 BTC now held on its balance sheet — valued at over $5.28 billion — MARA trails only Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in corporate Bitcoin holdings.

The company’s market cap currently stands at $5.18 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner globally.

Analysts: More Upside Possible

CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler commented that while daily mining revenues (~$50 million) are still below the historic $80 million peak, there’s potential to climb back to those highs.

MARA adopted Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve in July 2024, adding $124 million worth of BTC to its balance sheet, marking a key pivot in its financial strategy.

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MARA, in its Q4 statement released on February 26, outlined its ambition to become the base layer infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing applications, drawing parallels to Cisco’s role during the internet boom.

MARA Holdings CEO stated, “Whether for Bitcoin mining or AI inference, we believe our technologies will enable others to build while we provide the picks and shovels to deploy new systems and services, such as energy management, load balancing, and infrastructure.”

The company also mentioned that it took a “strategic pause” to assess the first wave of AI, where many of its Bitcoin mining competitors rushed into the field of leveraging data centers to train large language models. Instead, MARA believes that the biggest opportunities often emerge in the second wave, where those who observe and strategically position themselves will benefit most.

MARA’s Focus: AI Inference

MARA is focusing on the second wave of AI, which it believes will revolve around AI inference rather than training. Inference involves the AI model making its own decisions and conclusions without human intervention, after being trained. The company aims to support this with its infrastructure, which it believes will resemble traditional cloud computing.

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MARA’s Q4 Financial Results

MARA reported $214.4 million in revenue for Q4, exceeding the consensus estimate of $183.9 million by 16.5%. The company also added 18,146 Bitcoin to its holdings.

Net income reached $528.3 million, marking a 248% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose by 207% to $794.4 million.

The company increased the number of Bitcoin blocks won by 25% year-over-year, mining a total of 2,492 Bitcoin. All of these Bitcoins were retained under MARA’s new treasury policy, which aims to “retain all BTC” for the company. Additionally, MARA purchased another 14,574 BTC using cash and proceeds from its zero-coupon convertible senior note offerings.

By the end of 2024, MARA held a total of 44,893 Bitcoin, solidifying its position as the second-largest corporate Bitcoin holder behind BitBo’s Strategy as per BitcoinTreasuries.NET data.

Increase in Energy Capacity and Mining Facilities

MARA also increased its hashrate to 53.2 exahashes per second (EH/s), representing a 115% increase from Q4 2023. A significant portion of this increase came from securing 300% more energy capacity in 2024 while expanding to seven Bitcoin mining facilities.

Additionally, MARA launched 25-megawatt micro data centers in Texas and North Dakota, reducing the company’s reliance on grid power.

The strong Q4 performance saw MARA (MARA) shares rise 5.9% in after-hours trading to $13.18, though they later pulled back to $12.89. MARA shares closed the February 26 trading day at $12.45 according to Google Finance data.

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Bitcoin Mining is Getting Harder!

The difficulty of the Bitcoin network surged to 110 trillion, making it harder for miners to produce new blocks. With the increased computation power required, miners had to upgrade their equipment. Riot Platforms managed to overcome these challenges by launching a new mining facility, boosting its production.

Riot Platforms opened a massive new mining facility in Texas, allowing them to ramp up production. CEO Jason Les stated, “The Corsicana Facility reached a hash rate of 15.7 EH/s by the end of the month, and we saw significant improvements in our operational hash rate with newly deployed miners.” Riot’s move stands out as a success in the face of tough market conditions.

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Among the leading miners, Hut 8 saw a 27% drop in production in January, while Mara and Bitfarms experienced decreases of 12.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Miners are taking steps to upgrade infrastructure and improve equipment to handle the rising difficulty.

In the last week of January, Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased to 108 trillion, providing some relief. However, with the Bitcoin network’s high hashrate (832 EH/s) and declining hardware demand, miners are preparing for new strategies that could shape future operations. Miners will adapt their approaches in the coming months based on these developments.

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Thiel pointed out that Bitcoin has only experienced annual losses three times in its 14-year history. In an interview with FOX Business, he stated:

“My advice to my children is to buy Bitcoin regularly every month and witness its growth over the long term.”

He also noted that Bitcoin has demonstrated an annual average value growth of 29% to 50%, presenting a significant opportunity for individual investors.

Factors That Could Drive Bitcoin Prices in 2025

Thiel identified several key catalysts that could boost Bitcoin’s value:

• U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Plans: The potential use of Bitcoin as a national reserve.
• Increased Institutional Investment: The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to attract more institutional investors.
• Friendly Regulatory Environment: The new administration (Trump government) is anticipated to adopt a crypto-friendly stance.

In a poll conducted by prominent Bitcoin advocate and MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, 77.7% of respondents indicated plans to increase their Bitcoin investments in 2025. The poll received a total of 65,164 responses.

MARA Holdings’ Bitcoin Strategy

In 2024, MARA Holdings increased its Bitcoin reserves by 192.5%, reaching 44,394 Bitcoins, equivalent to $4.3 billion at current market prices. The company retains all its mined Bitcoin, adhering to a hold-all strategy that has drawn attention.

Following MicroStrategy’s massive reserve of 446,400 Bitcoins, MARA Holdings holds the second-largest Bitcoin reserve among publicly traded companies. This strategy reflects the company’s expectation of Bitcoin’s long-term value appreciation.

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The US-based company Bitwise announced its application to the SEC for a new fund called the Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF. This fund aims to track the stock performance of companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC in their corporate reserves.

Bitwise’s new ETF will invest in companies meeting specific criteria. Eligible companies must have a market capitalization of at least $100 million, a daily average trading volume of at least $1 million, and a public float percentage below 10%.

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, shared a list on his X account of companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. The list is led by MicroStrategy, followed by Marathon Digital, Riot, Hut8, Tesla, and Coinbase.

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel, whose company holds over 44,000 BTC, stated, “I believe MARA should be included in this ETF.”

Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, also highlighted his company’s eligibility, saying, “Metaplanet is a Bitcoin standard company with at least 1,000 BTC in its corporate reserves.”

Nate Geraci’s tweet on the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF:

Bitwise’s application for the Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF reflects the growing interest in institutional-level Bitcoin investments and efforts to make such investments more accessible. This type of ETF offers investors the opportunity to benefit from the performance of major companies holding Bitcoin, while also enhancing market transparency and encouraging greater institutional participation.

This initiative has the potential to attract interest from both key players in the crypto sector and traditional investors, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position within the financial ecosystem.

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“Thanks, Fred. I expect $MARA will be the next.”

MicroStrategy is scheduled to be included in the Nasdaq 100 before the start of trading on Dec. 23.

MARA Aiming for Nasdaq 100

Fred Thiel congratulated Saylor, saying, “Congratulations to $MSTR and @saylor for being the first Bitcoin treasury company to join the Nasdaq 100.” Thiel also stated that MARA is “working hard to get there.” The crypto miner has reportedly spent over $600 million on Bitcoin in the last two months, as per a Dec. 2 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Joining the Nasdaq 100 indicates that a company is among the top 100 in market capitalization on the Nasdaq stock exchange. As of Dec. 13, MicroStrategy’s market cap stood at $94.77 billion, while MARA’s market cap was $7.32 billion.

Stock Prices and Other Developments

MARA’s stock price closed at $22.73 on Dec. 13, marking a 16.74% increase over the last six months. MicroStrategy, on the other hand, closed at $408.67, reflecting a 173.27% rise over the same period.

With new companies joining the Nasdaq 100, others are removed. MicroStrategy is one of three new additions to the index, replacing Illumina, Super Micro Computer, and Moderna.

MARA’s Call to Action for the U.S.

On Nov. 27, MARA urged the U.S. government to take more assertive steps to strengthen its position in Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining. MARA framed the matter as one of national security, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to take the lead in accumulating Bitcoin, similar to its strategy with gold, especially amid growing trends of de-dollarization.

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In its latest report, JPMorgan highlighted that price targets for leading mining companies, including MARA Holdings (MARA), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and IREN (IREN), have been increased. These stocks are currently trading near or above their revised targets.

Expanded Evaluation Criteria for Bitcoin Miners

Previously, JPMorgan evaluated Bitcoin miners based on their four-year gross profit potential. Now, analysts have expanded their framework to include:

• The value of the companies’ land and energy assets.
• Premiums for holding Bitcoin reserves (HODL).

HODL Premium: The Advantage of Bitcoin Reserves

JPMorgan analysts noted that MicroStrategy, due to its significant BTC holdings, trades at approximately 2.4x its market value. With around $40 billion in Bitcoin reserves, MicroStrategy is a leader in this space.

Leading Bitcoin mining companies and their BTC reserves include:

• Marathon: $3.9 billion
• Riot: $1.1 billion
• CleanSpark: $890 million

Growing interest in BTC reserves has led to increased valuations in public markets. According to JPMorgan, total Bitcoin reserves on corporate balance sheets now exceed $53 billion.

Valuation of Land and Energy Assets

The second quarter of 2024 marked a pivotal period for Bitcoin miners. The April Bitcoin block reward halving reduced rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, squeezing profit margins for miners.

In response, cash-rich companies like Riot Platforms and CleanSpark acquired turnkey mining facilities to increase hash rates in the short term. JPMorgan estimates Riot’s energy portfolio is worth approximately $1.3 billion.

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Acquisition Details

Initially, MARA purchased 5,771 BTC at an average price of $95,395 per Bitcoin. It later added 703 BTC, completing the total acquisition of 6,474 BTC. Year-to-date, MARA’s per-share Bitcoin yield stands at 36.7%.

In addition to acquiring Bitcoin, the company repurchased a portion of its 2026 notes worth $200 million. MARA plans to use the remaining $160 million from the convertible debt raise to acquire more Bitcoin, capitalizing on price dips to enhance its treasury.

Following MicroStrategy’s Playbook

MARA’s strategy of leveraging convertible debt to acquire Bitcoin mirrors MicroStrategy’s approach. Since 2020, MicroStrategy has been issuing corporate debt to bolster its Bitcoin reserves. Recently, it issued $3 billion in zero-interest senior convertible notes, purchasing 55,000 BTC and increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 386,700 BTC.

While this strategy highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, it is not without risks. Critics argue that financing Bitcoin acquisitions through debt is a high-risk and unsustainable strategy, especially in the face of potential market downturns. However, both MARA and MicroStrategy aim to manage these risks by extending their repayment obligations into the long term, providing a buffer against short-term volatility.

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