According to data provided by the CME FedWatch tool, the target rate range could be lowered to 350–375 basis points, while the likelihood of keeping the current policy range of 375–400 basis points stands at 29%.

This article may also catch your attention: Bitcoin (BTC) Recovery Gains Strength: Will the Uptrend Continue?

Factors Strengthening Expectations

Statements made by New York Fed President John Williams indicate that short-term adjustments to interest rates may be possible, further boosting market expectations of a rate cut.

Data flow disruptions in the United States are creating uncertainty in the FED’s decision-making process. Although recent minutes suggest differing views within the Fed regarding a potential rate cut, the overall sentiment points toward a policy easing at the final meeting of the year.

A higher probability of a rate cut has positively reflected on Bitcoin and altcoin markets, increasing appetite for risk assets. However, market participants remain cautious in light of possible surprises from the Federal Reserve.

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What Is the Current Economic Outlook for the United States?

The current inflation rate in the United States is hovering around 3%. However, the FED’s target is to bring this figure down to approximately 2% annually. The interest rate applied to the U.S. dollar currently stands at around 4%. Considering the “stable but fragile” market conditions mentioned by the FED, it is expected that this rate may decline toward 3% in the near future.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which reached a historic peak of 14.9% in 2020, has since corrected to 4.3%. However, when examining the labor market over the past few months, little change is observed. Although progress continues, some FED officials consistently highlight that employment growth has slowed significantly — a trend that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Although the flames around tariffs seem to have cooled in recent months, tariff policies and global trade uncertainties will likely have a negative impact on inflation. This uncertainty appears poised to influence inflation in a positive direction.

You may also be interested in this article: Bitcoin’s Buy and Sell Ratio Turns Positive for the First Time: A Strong Bullish Signal

How Are the FED and Its Officials Interpreting the Situation?

• Philip Nathan Jefferson (FED Vice Chair):
  I supported the FOMC rate cut in October. Overall, the economy hasn’t changed much in recent months, but the lack of progress on inflation appears to stem from tariffs. Interest rates are close to neutral, so it’s better to move slowly.
• Michael Solomon Barr (FED Board Member):
  Progress has been made on inflation, but there’s still work to be done.
• Christopher J. Waller (FED Board Member):
  Stablecoins are not a threat to monetary policy.
• Beth M. Hammack (FED Bank President):
  I do not believe current economic data justify a rate hike. The people I’ve spoken with indicate that the labor market remains in an environment of low hiring and low layoffs. Keeping the Fed’s policy restrictive will help bring inflation down.

How Do Trump’s Trade Policies Affect the Economy?

Donald Trump referred to the ongoing legal process regarding tariffs and mentioned the need for new alternative plans. He stated that if the Supreme Court case ends unfavorably, an alternative plan is ready — though it would progress more slowly. FED officials may interpret the resulting price increases from these tariffs as renewed inflationary pressure. This is because, inevitably, import costs — and thus consumer prices — are likely to rise.

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Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Gold Higher

As investors seek shelter from volatility, demand for gold has intensified, propelling prices to historic levels. The surge to $3,700 per ounce underscores the strong appetite for safe-haven assets during periods of economic and geopolitical turbulence.

September 17 Rate Decision in Focus

Markets are now looking ahead to September 17, when a major interest rate decision will be announced. Experts suggest that the direction of monetary policy will be crucial for gold’s trajectory. Any signs of slower tightening or dovish sentiment could pave the way for further gains.

Global Uncertainties Bolster the Rally

Beyond central bank policy, a range of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks continue to support gold’s upward trend. Trade tensions, tariff measures, and broader financial instability are fueling the precious metal’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.

Is This Just the Beginning?

At $3,700 per ounce, gold is at its highest level ever, yet analysts believe the rally may not be over. With ongoing risks and a crucial rate decision ahead, the stage may be set for even higher records in the weeks to come.

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25 Basis Point Rate Cut Expected 

Market pricing shows near certainty that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week. Traders also expect three more cuts by year-end and at least three additional reductions in 2026. The latest CPI data came in line with forecasts, rising 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% annually. Core CPI stood at 3.1% year-over-year. 

Despite this, most economists believe a larger-scale cut is unlikely in the short term. Powell’s press conference following the decision will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the rest of the year. 

Trump–Powell Tensions 

President Trump criticized Powell as “inadequate” and called for an “immediate and significant cut.” He argued that while energy and food prices are easing, the housing market is being left behind due to high rates. Reports in U.S. media also claim Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been exploring potential successors to Powell. 

Trump’s remarks have heightened political pressure on the Fed, reigniting debates about its independence and raising new questions over the credibility of the U.S. dollar. 

The Lisa Cook Case and New Evidence 

The Trump administration has sought to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged “deceptive and potentially criminal” mortgage disclosures. Cook countered that the removal order exceeded presidential authority and violated her due process rights. On September 9, a federal court granted an injunction preventing her removal. 

The administration has appealed the decision. However, newly published documents by NBC may weaken the government’s case. A May 2021 loan summary showed Cook’s Atlanta property listed as a vacation home—supporting her claim that it was declared as a second residence. The evidence could undermine allegations of misrepresentation in her mortgage filings. 

Candidates for Powell’s Successor 

Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and speculation about his successor is already heating up. Reported frontrunners include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Waller, while BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is also emerging as a strong candidate. 

These developments place Fed independence and market credibility under intense scrutiny. Ahead of the decision, both political pressures and legal battles remain in sharp focus for global investors. 

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Eurozone CPI: 2% 

Expectations and Previous Data: 

• Market Expectation: 2% 
• Previous Month: 2% 

Market uncertainty continues following the release; Bitcoin is trading at $113,800. Investors are closely monitoring ECB’s monetary policy decisions and global macro developments. These figures provide critical signals for the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Persistent inflationary pressures increase the likelihood of continued tightening measures. These developments influence investor risk appetite and the price of assets like Bitcoin. 

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What is the Jackson Hole Meeting?

The Jackson Hole meeting is a highly anticipated event in the global financial world, where central bankers, leading economists, and policymakers come together. Key topics such as monetary policy, global economic balance, and market expectations are discussed during the conference.

In particular, signals regarding interest rate decisions and liquidity policies make the meeting highly significant for investors. That’s why Jackson Hole is considered a guide not only for the U.S. but also for global markets.

Powell’s Speech This Year

Powell’s speech is scheduled for Friday, August 22, around at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Investors are especially focused on whether Powell will give a clear signal about an upcoming rate cut ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting.

This year’s speech carries extra weight for Powell personally, as his term ends next year—meaning this could be one of his last major appearances at Jackson Hole. Markets are eager to see how he will balance signs of a weakening labor market with persistent inflation pressures.

Weakness in the Labor Market

Recent data show signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Non-farm payrolls came in well below expectations, and previous months’ numbers were revised downward. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while weekly jobless claims climbed to their highest level since 2021.

This situation raises concerns regarding the Fed’s “full employment” mandate. As a result, markets are closely watching whether Powell will highlight this weakness and signal a stronger possibility of a rate cut.

Inflation Risks Still Persist

On the other hand, the inflation picture remains challenging. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reached a three-year high, and while CPI came in line with expectations, core inflation continues to trend upward. This makes Powell’s job more complicated, as it limits the Fed’s room to cut rates aggressively.

Possible Scenarios

Analysts point out three potential scenarios for Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks:

1. Signal a rate cut: He may cite labor market weakness as justification, boosting expectations for a September cut.

2. Stress inflation risks: Powell could dampen market expectations by emphasizing, “We are not yet aligned with our inflation target.”

3. Stay data-dependent: He may refrain from strong guidance, instead highlighting that upcoming labor and inflation data will shape the Fed’s decisions.

Rate Cut Expectations

Market expectations have already become clear. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, 83.1% of investors expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting. The probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 16.9%, while a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is currently priced at 0%.

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On Truth Social, Trump accused Powell of doing a “terrible and incompetent” job in renovating Fed buildings. He also claimed Powell committed perjury in this matter, adding that the Justice Department has made similar allegations. This further increased the political pressure on the Fed Chair. 

Last month, Trump visited the Federal Reserve to inspect the ongoing renovation projects. During his visit, he urged Powell to lower interest rates. The president stressed that the Fed was too late in taking action, causing significant harm to the U.S. economy. 

CPI Data and Tariff Debate 

Trump’s comments came after the release of July’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The report showed annual inflation at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while monthly CPI fell from 0.3% to 0.2%. These results reinforced Trump’s view that tariffs had a limited impact on inflation. 

The president stated that tariffs brought large sums of money into the U.S. and that consumers did not bear the costs. Moreover, he argued that tariffs did not create price pressures as the Fed had anticipated. Powell, however, maintained that the best approach was to wait and assess the tariffs’ effects before making a rate cut decision. 

Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee for the Fed Board of Governors, also commented positively on the CPI data. Miran said inflation was “performing well” and that there was no evidence of tariff-driven price increases. He also noted that since Trump took office, annual CPI inflation had averaged 1.9%. 

These developments indicate that the tension between the Fed and the White House over interest rate policy is set to continue. 

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Increase in Initial Jobless Claims

Initial unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. were announced at 226,000 last week. Market expectations were around 221,000. The previous week’s figure was recorded as 219,000. The announced data slightly exceeded forecasts, indicating a limited slowdown in the labor market.

Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims

On the other hand, continuing jobless claims also showed an increase. According to the latest data, these claims reached 1.974 million. Expectations were 1.950 million, while the previous data was announced as 1.936 million. This rise suggests that recovery in the employment market may be slowing.

Market Reaction and Possible Implications

This increase in claims may affect expectations regarding FED policies and the macroeconomic outlook. If this trend continues, market volatility may increase in the short term. Especially in assets like gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins, the search for direction may accelerate.

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Accusations of Data Manipulation

In a recent post on his Truth Social account, Trump directly targeted former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating job data for political gain. He emphasized the urgent need for “accurate labor numbers” and stated, “These figures must be fair and correct — not manipulated for political purposes.” Trump also made it clear that McEntarfer, appointed under Biden’s administration, was dismissed immediately on his orders.

Political Fallout and Public Reaction

The decision to remove McEntarfer has ignited criticism from various quarters, raising concerns about the independence of key government agencies. Critics argue that Trump’s accusations were made without providing any supporting evidence, leading to questions about the transparency of the decision. Even some Republican economists have warned that this could be perceived as a political intervention, potentially undermining the credibility of future employment reports.

Who Will Lead the BLS Next?

The new BLS chief, expected to be announced later this week, will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of labor statistics in the United States. Given that BLS data serves as a foundation for market analysis and monetary policy, the upcoming appointment is being closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers alike.

The question now is not only who will fill the position, but also how this leadership change might impact public trust in labor data — a cornerstone of the U.S. economic narrative.

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The inflation, which was recorded at 2% in the previous period, indicates that inflationary pressures are continuing in the markets. This data is of critical importance for the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). 

The market expectation was at the 1.9% level. The previous period was recorded at 2%. Inflation came in above expectations. Monthly inflation was recorded at 0.1%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy), which is one of the key inflation indicators, rose to 2.9% on an annual basis.

This shows that the fundamental components of inflation are strengthening. Services sector inflation, at 1.82%, became the component with the highest annual inflation. According to the data, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone came in above expectations, at 2%. This shows that the rate remained at the same level as the 2% recorded in June. The market expectation was 1.9%. 

This situation indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) has reached its inflation target of 2%, but that the pressures on price stability have not completely disappeared. Movements in sub-items, especially core inflation, will continue to provide important clues for the ECB’s future monetary policy decisions.

Following the news, the Bitcoin price is trading at $115,350. In short, there is an environment of uncertainty and reduced risk appetite in the markets. Investors are carefully watching Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate policies.

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