The statement has attracted attention across global financial markets, as investors continue to speculate about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the potential impact on risk assets.

What Is Quantitative Easing?

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy tool typically used by central banks during periods of severe economic stress. Under this approach, a central bank purchases large quantities of government bonds and other financial assets from the market. The goal is to increase liquidity within the financial system, lower long-term interest rates, and stimulate economic activity.

The Federal Reserve has relied on QE in the past during major crises. Notably, the policy was widely used after the 2008 global financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic. These programs helped stabilize financial markets and supported economic recovery by injecting significant liquidity into the system.

Focus Remains on Policy Normalization

Bessent’s comments indicate that the U.S. economy is not currently facing the type of crisis that would require emergency monetary stimulus. As a result, the Federal Reserve appears to be maintaining its focus on policy normalization rather than returning to ultra-loose conditions.

At present, the Fed’s priorities remain centered on managing inflation and maintaining economic stability. Policymakers are attempting to ensure that inflation continues to moderate while keeping economic growth on a sustainable path.

This approach suggests that the central bank is likely to proceed cautiously, avoiding large-scale monetary stimulus unless economic conditions deteriorate significantly.

Implications for Financial Markets

The indication that QE is not on the near-term horizon carries important implications for financial markets. Historically, large liquidity injections from central banks have played a major role in fueling rallies across risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

However, the current outlook suggests that financial conditions could remain relatively tight compared to previous stimulus-driven cycles. Without the support of expansive liquidity programs, markets may experience a more restrained environment where fundamentals and macroeconomic data play a larger role in shaping price movements.

Outlook for Future Monetary Policy

While quantitative easing remains a powerful policy tool, Bessent’s remarks imply that its return would likely require a significant economic downturn or financial crisis. For now, policymakers appear committed to a more measured strategy focused on controlling inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

As a result, expectations for an immediate return to large-scale monetary expansion remain limited, and global markets will continue to monitor economic data and central bank signals for clues about the next phase of policy.

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Hayes frames the issue through a macro-historical lens, suggesting that large-scale US military operations have often coincided with looser monetary conditions. In his view, extended geopolitical commitments tend to place fiscal pressure on Washington, creating an environment where expanding liquidity becomes a practical policy response.

Historical Examples: Wars and Fed Money Printing

Looking back at post-1985 conflicts in the Middle East, Hayes highlights several episodes where military involvement was followed by rate cuts or monetary easing. The 1990 Gulf War, the global war on terror after the September 11 attacks in 2001, and the 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan all occurred alongside periods of Federal Reserve accommodation.

His argument is that financing large-scale geopolitical strategies frequently requires supportive monetary conditions. If the US were to embark on a long-term and expensive political restructuring effort in Iran, similar dynamics could re-emerge. In such a scenario, lower interest rates and increased money supply would not only ease fiscal strain but also inject additional liquidity into global markets.

For digital assets, that liquidity expansion could serve as a tailwind. Historically, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—have responded positively to periods of monetary easing.

A Wait-and-See Approach

Despite outlining a potentially bullish framework for crypto markets, Hayes advises caution. The scale and duration of US involvement in Iran remain uncertain, as does the political tolerance for sustained financial and geopolitical costs. For now, he suggests monitoring developments rather than front-running policy shifts.

In his assessment, the optimal entry point for Bitcoin and higher-quality altcoins would materialize only after the Fed explicitly signals rate cuts or balance sheet expansion.

Markets Remain Measured

Although weekend airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iranian targets triggered heightened rhetoric on social media, broader financial markets have not displayed signs of systemic panic. US stock futures opened with only modest declines, oil prices retraced roughly half of their initial surge, and the S&P 500 fell by less than 1%.

This muted reaction suggests that, at least for now, markets are not pricing in a full-scale global crisis. The key variable moving forward will be whether geopolitical escalation translates into a decisive shift in Federal Reserve policy.

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According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be engaging in an indirect form of monetary expansion—one that markets have yet to fully price in.

A “Technical” Program With QE-Like Effects

At the center of Hayes’ argument is a Federal Reserve mechanism known as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Officially, the Fed describes RMP as a technical liquidity management tool designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. Hayes, however, believes the real impact closely mirrors that of traditional quantitative easing.

He points out that under this framework, the Fed is purchasing roughly $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bills each month. While the central bank avoids labeling this as stimulus, Hayes argues that the result is the same: fresh liquidity entering the financial system. Unlike previous QE programs, RMP does not appear to have a clearly defined cap or end date, which, in his view, makes it even more supportive for risk assets over time.

“Not QE, Just Money Creation”

Hayes breaks the process down in simple terms. The Fed creates new money and uses it to buy government debt. The institutions selling those bonds then redeploy the newly created capital—either back into fixed income markets, through lending to hedge funds, or into risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Eventually, that liquidity filters through the broader economy.

From Hayes’ perspective, the distinction between QE and RMP is largely semantic. He describes the mechanism bluntly as the monetary printing press operating at full speed. Once investors begin to recognize this dynamic, he believes Bitcoin could respond aggressively to the upside.

A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026

Despite his long-term optimism, Hayes remains cautious in the near term. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000 through the end of 2025. The main reason, he argues, is that markets are still accepting the Fed’s narrative that RMP is not a form of monetary easing.

That perception, according to Hayes, could change in early 2026. If investors begin to treat RMP as de facto QE, he expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $124,000 level and potentially accelerate toward $200,000 within the first quarter of that year.

Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver

Recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions underscore the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut, combined with visible disagreements among policymakers, highlights a lack of clear direction. Hayes views this uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Bitcoin to strengthen its role as a monetary hedge.

As 2026 approaches, the broader message is clear: Federal Reserve policy—whether openly expansionary or not—may play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next major move.

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At the heart of this optimistic outlook are expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the political calendar.

Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity Expectations

One of the main pillars supporting long-term bullish projections for Bitcoin is the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin moving away from its restrictive monetary stance. Market participants are closely watching for signals that quantitative tightening could come to an end, alongside the possibility of interest rate cuts and short-term liquidity support via Treasury bill mechanisms.

Some analysts also point to softening labor market data as a factor that could push the Fed toward a more accommodative policy approach. Under such conditions, capital tends to rotate toward higher-risk assets, a scenario in which Bitcoin has historically benefited.

If these macro conditions align, long-term forecasts suggest that Bitcoin could potentially rise into the $200,000 to $250,000 range over time. While this scenario is not guaranteed, it reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin’s role as a macro-sensitive asset rather than a purely speculative instrument.

Short-Term Price Action Remains Unstable

Despite constructive long-term narratives, Bitcoin’s short-term price behavior remains choppy. After briefly slipping below $83,000, BTC rebounded toward the $86,000 level during Asian trading hours. Upcoming U.S. inflation releases, including CPI and Core PCE data, are expected to play a key role in shaping expectations around Fed policy heading into 2026.

Recent performance data shows Bitcoin down roughly 2% on a weekly basis and close to 7% over the past 30 days. Nevertheless, BTC continues to dominate the market, maintaining a 57% share of total crypto market capitalization.

The Broader 2026 Crypto Narrative

Looking beyond price targets, analysts emphasize that the crypto market is entering a phase of structural maturation. Increasing Bitcoin holdings by public companies and ETFs, declining exchange balances, and a growing preference for long-term custody all point to a shift away from speculative trading toward institutional participation.

From a technical perspective, $90,000 remains a critical resistance level. A confirmed breakout could reopen the path toward the $92,000–$94,000 range and eventually bring the psychological $100,000 level back into focus. Failure to clear this zone, however, could result in deeper corrective moves.

Overall, the outlook suggests caution in the short term, while 2026 continues to stand out as a potentially transformative period for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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In particular, the latest remarks from Mark Cabana, a former New York Fed repo expert who is now working at Bank of America, have once again brought the possibility of a new wave of liquidity to the agenda. However, one critical point must be clearly underlined: These assessments are not an official decision for now, but merely Cabana’s projections based on market dynamics.

What Does Mark Cabana’s Liquidity Scenario Suggest?

According to Mark Cabana, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could put on the table a move to launch approximately $45 billion per month in Treasury bill (T-bill) purchases following this week’s FOMC meeting. It is stated that:

• $20 billion of this amount could be used to meet reserve needs in line with growing public liabilities,

• $25 billion could be allocated to replenish reserves that have been drained in the repo market.

According to Cabana, this process may not technically be labeled as “QE” (quantitative easing). However, since it would imply balance sheet expansion, it could effectively function as a mechanism that injects new liquidity into the market.

The Claim That “QT Is Over, the Liquidity Tap May Be Reopened”

One of Cabana’s most striking comments is his assessment that the quantitative tightening (QT) process may have effectively come to an end. According to him:

• At the December meeting, the Fed may not only implement a 25-basis-point rate cut,

• But may also quietly reopen the liquidity channel.

If this scenario materializes, starting from January:

• Monthly T-bill purchases of $40–45 billion,

• And term repo operations

could begin supplying additional reserves to the market.

Even if it is not officially called “QE,” such a step—implying balance sheet expansion—could serve as a strong short-term support factor for equities, crypto assets, and other risky instruments.

What Would Be the Market Impact If This Scenario Occurs?

Such liquidity expansion could technically be reflected in the market through several channels:

• Treasury bill purchases reduce the use of the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility),

• A drawdown in the RRP increases net system liquidity,

• Rising liquidity strengthens appetite for risk assets.

However, with Cabana’s own warning, such temporary liquidity support mechanisms could also lay the groundwork for greater valuation pressures in the long term.

What Do Institutions Expect from the Fed?

Bank of America’s View

According to Bank of America, even if the Fed continues to use cautious language, markets may begin to price in more aggressive rate cut expectations for January. The bank forecasts:

• A 25-basis-point cut in December,

• But also tighter forward guidance,

• And the possibility of several dissenting votes in the decision process.

Morgan Stanley’s Assessment

Morgan Stanley, taking into account recent Fed statements and market pricing, states that a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting has now become a strong probability. According to the bank, the gap between market expectations and the Fed’s communication is narrowing.

A Striking Message from Hassett

Kevin Hassett, one of the White House’s economic advisers, also argues in his assessment of the Fed that the time has come to begin rate cuts in a cautious manner. This view is interpreted as a message in line with the shift signals expected by the markets.

What Do CME FedWatch Data Say?

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool, one of the most closely followed indicators in the futures market, show that investor expectations are shaping as follows:

• Probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut: 87.4%

• Probability of rates being left unchanged: 12.6%

These figures indicate that a rate cut at the December meeting has almost become the “base case” for the markets.

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A High Probability of Balance Sheet Expansion

A report shared via economic news outlet Walter Bloomberg states that Deutsche Bank sees a “high likelihood” that the Fed will resume balance sheet growth during the opening months of next year. The analysis points out that weakening growth indicators and more restrictive financial conditions will likely shape the backdrop for a pivot toward easing. These factors, the report suggests, may prompt policymakers to prioritize liquidity support in order to stabilize economic momentum.

What Does Balance Sheet Expansion Mean?

When the Federal Reserve enlarges its balance sheet, it typically does so by purchasing U.S. government bonds or other securities, injecting additional liquidity into the financial system. This mechanism is widely recognized as a form of quantitative easing (QE). In financial markets, balance sheet expansion is often seen as a signal that risk appetite may strengthen. As liquidity increases, demand for a wide range of assets—potentially including cryptocurrencies—can rise, creating upward pressure on prices.

QE vs. QT: The Fed’s Most Influential Policy Tools

QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) represent two central levers used by the Federal Reserve to influence economic conditions. During QE cycles, the Fed purchases large amounts of assets such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, adding substantial amounts of dollar liquidity into the system. This approach is designed to lower long-term interest rates, support economic expansion, and prevent deflationary pressures. Major examples include the post-2008 financial crisis period and the large-scale asset purchases during the 2020 pandemic, both of which eventually paved the way for strong bull markets.

By contrast, QT works in the opposite direction. The Fed reduces its holdings by letting securities mature without reinvesting the proceeds or by actively selling assets, effectively shrinking its balance sheet. This policy aims to curb inflation and decrease the money supply by tightening financial conditions. From 2022 through October 2025, QT was the Fed’s primary stance, contributing to a notable reduction in market liquidity.

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PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top

PlanB, the analyst known for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, views the recent correction as a natural breather within a larger bull cycle. He highlights that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive months — a sign that the market has transitioned from treating this level as resistance to regarding it as a firm support zone.

Momentum indicators support this idea. With the RSI hovering near 66, Bitcoin is far from the euphoric 80+ readings typically seen at major market tops. Based on his model projections, PlanB suggests that the next major upward phase could lift prices into the $250,000–$500,000 range, assuming Bitcoin continues to diverge from its realized price — a common feature of strong bull markets.

Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming “Stealth QE”

Arthur Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to contracting U.S. dollar liquidity. Since the summer’s debt ceiling resolution, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has expanded, pulling significant liquidity out of financial markets.

However, Hayes expects this trend to reverse once the government reopens and begins deploying funds more aggressively. This would reduce the TGA balance and inject liquidity back into the system. He argues that the Federal Reserve’s involvement — particularly through the Standing Repo Facility — will amount to balance-sheet expansion without being formally labeled quantitative easing. According to Hayes, this discreet liquidity boost could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin.

Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near

Macro strategist Raoul Pal points to the long-term uptrend in his Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index as evidence that the broader liquidity cycle remains intact. In his view, markets are currently in a “Window of Pain,” marked by tight conditions that challenge investor conviction.

Pal expects a decisive turnaround as U.S. Treasury spending injects an estimated $250–350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening winds down, and interest rate cuts begin. He notes that when global liquidity rises — across the U.S., China, Japan, and elsewhere — risk assets tend to move higher in unison.

Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that major Bitcoin holders — addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — accumulated roughly 29,600 BTC in the past week, an amount valued at about $3 billion. Their combined holdings have climbed to 3.504 million BTC, marking the first significant accumulation wave since September.

What makes this trend more notable is that it occurred during a period of sharp sentiment deterioration among retail investors and $2 billion in ETF outflows. Analysts interpret this divergence as evidence that institutional players are strengthening the support zone around $100,000, positioning for the next macro-driven expansion.

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Ray Dalio: “Gold Rally Could Begin”

Dalio argues that the Fed’s latest communication, framed as a technical balance-sheet adjustment, is in reality a more meaningful pivot. Citing Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that reserves will eventually need to grow in line with the banking system and the broader economy, Dalio stresses that the scale of upcoming liquidity injections will be crucial.

He notes that if balance-sheet expansion coincides with interest-rate cuts and rising fiscal deficits, the result resembles a coordinated monetary-fiscal effort to absorb government debt. Dalio characterizes this as a familiar pattern in which central banks effectively monetize deficits — a dynamic he warns can contribute to asset bubbles.

The Case for a Gold Rally

According to Dalio, central-bank bond purchases create liquidity and suppress real interest rates. Where this liquidity flows ultimately determines market behavior. When it stays within financial assets, prices tend to rise, risk spreads narrow, and gold historically gains value.

Dalio points out that periods of rising inflation and currency debasement typically support gold’s performance. With fiat supply expanding far more rapidly than the supply of gold, he argues that the metal often strengthens as investors seek stability amid monetary erosion.

And What About Bitcoin?

While Dalio focuses primarily on gold, his analysis has clear implications for Bitcoin. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has already suggested that the Fed is engaging in a form of “stealth quantitative easing,” injecting liquidity into markets through mechanisms like repo facilities. Hayes believes this process could ignite Bitcoin’s next bullish cycle, asserting that the crypto asset responds quickly to shifts in dollar liquidity.

Despite this optimism, Dalio cautions that excessive liquidity can inflate speculative bubbles — a warning that adds nuance to the more aggressive predictions circulating in crypto circles.

Both Dalio and Hayes agree on one point: the Fed’s move toward easier financial conditions will be a decisive force across global markets. Whether Bitcoin rallies alongside gold or takes a more volatile path remains a key question investors will be watching closely.

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Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000

The world’s leading cryptocurrency has dipped to its lowest level since June, breaking below the $100,000 threshold. The move has raised fears of a deeper market correction among retail investors. However, Matt Hougan of Bitwise sees the downturn differently. He describes it as “the peak of retail capitulation,” suggesting that panic selling among individual traders is nearing exhaustion.

Speaking to CNBC’s Crypto World, Hougan noted, “Crypto retail sentiment is more depressed than I’ve ever seen. We’ve witnessed leverage washouts, and the market feels completely drained of optimism.”

Despite this, Hougan believes the broader market remains fundamentally strong. “When I talk to institutions and financial advisers, the enthusiasm is still there. Looking at a one-year chart, Bitcoin continues to deliver robust returns,” he said. Hougan also suggested that institutional demand could soon drive prices higher, projecting that Bitcoin could end the year in the $125,000–$130,000 range.

Arthur Hayes Predicts “Stealth QE” From the Fed

While Hougan focuses on investor sentiment, Arthur Hayes emphasizes liquidity as the primary force behind Bitcoin’s next rally. In his November 4 essay, Hayes argued that the United States’ rising debt levels will ultimately compel the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet — a process he refers to as “stealth quantitative easing” (stealth QE).

According to Hayes, the Fed will use its Standing Repo Facility to inject liquidity into the financial system and indirectly support Treasury financing. Although not an official QE program, he believes this mechanism will have a similar impact by increasing the money supply.

“As the Fed’s balance sheet grows, it creates dollar liquidity, which inevitably pushes Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher,” Hayes wrote, predicting that this “quiet liquidity creation” could reignite the next major bull run.

Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market?

According to Mosaic Asset and The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin has officially entered bear market territory after declining more than 20% from its all-time high on October 6. Some traders, including investor Ted Pillows, have warned that prices could fall further, possibly testing the $92,000 CME gap if the $100,000 support fails to hold.

Despite short-term volatility, both Hayes and Hougan believe the long-term setup for Bitcoin remains favorable. They argue that once panic selling subsides and liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin could regain momentum — setting the stage for its next upward cycle.

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Market Decline Despite Positive Developments

Earlier this week, several major announcements were expected to boost investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve officially declared the end of quantitative tightening (QT), while the U.S. and China reached a long-awaited trade truce. On top of that, two consecutive rate cuts and the approval of an altcoin staking ETF appeared to set the stage for a strong market rebound.

Yet, contrary to expectations, both Bitcoin and U.S. equities suffered a sharp decline. On-chain data signaled weakening institutional demand, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments undermined confidence.

By the end of the week, Bitcoin was trading around $110,000, reflecting continued market fragility.

On-Chain Data Signaled Weak Institutional Demand

One of the key indicators pointing to Bitcoin’s decline was the Coinbase Premium Gap, which turned negative after a brief recovery. This metric measures the price difference between Coinbase—a preferred exchange among U.S. institutions—and global exchanges. Historically, it has served as a proxy for American institutional buying activity.

A negative reading indicates that U.S.-based investors are selling or avoiding accumulation, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent price movements lacked strong institutional conviction. Retail investors, meanwhile, may have misinterpreted the wave of macroeconomic “good news” as a direct sign of sustained demand, overestimating its real impact.

Fed’s Cautious Outlook Shakes Confidence

According to CryptoQuant, the downturn was amplified by Powell’s statement that a December rate cut is “not guaranteed.” Although QT will officially conclude on December 1, Powell’s cautious tone raised fresh doubts about how quickly the Fed will ease monetary policy.

Additionally, the fragile nature of the U.S.-China trade truce and renewed reports of U.S. nuclear testing activities further weighed on investor sentiment, adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty to an already unstable market environment.

Long-Term Outlook: A Healthy Correction Before a New High?

CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that this recent correction represents a cooling-off period after months of speculative excess. Institutional hesitation, temporary liquidity concerns, and geopolitical risks have collectively worked to stabilize an overheated market.

Analysts believe that once QT fully ends and liquidity conditions improve, risk appetite could gradually recover, paving the way for Bitcoin’s next leg up.

The TeraHash analytics team noted that Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend remains intact, though its momentum has clearly slowed. They identified $98,000 as a critical support level—if broken, BTC could slide toward the $70,000 zone amid deeper selling pressure.

Still, Bitcoin’s growing acceptance among major global funds and its strengthening institutional legitimacy suggest that any correction is likely to be measured rather than abrupt. Experts maintain that if the Fed maintains its rate-cutting trajectory and global economic stability persists, Bitcoin could set a new all-time high by late 2025 or early 2026.

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