A Historic Day for ETF Outflows

On November 20, 2025, the ETF market experienced one of its most intense days of selling. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $903 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw an additional $261 million leave the market. For Bitcoin ETFs in particular, this level of withdrawal stands among the highest ever observed and underscores the severity of the current sell-off.

The Main Driver: Retail Selling in Spot ETFs

According to JPMorgan analysts, the latest downturn can be largely attributed to retail investors exiting spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Citing research led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the team observed that individual investors sold roughly $4 billion worth of spot BTC and ETH ETFs throughout November. This wave of redemptions has been identified as the primary catalyst keeping the crypto market under pressure.

While October’s correction was driven by heavy deleveraging in perpetual futures markets, JPMorgan notes that those leveraged positions have since stabilized. Instead, November’s sell-off was dominated by non-crypto-native retail participants, whose ETF withdrawals extended the market’s decline.

VanEck: Medium-Term Holders Are Selling, Long-Term Investors Holding Steady

VanEck’s analysis offers further insight into the behavior of different investor groups. The firm highlights that the latest wave of selling largely came from medium-term holders, not long-term BTC investors. Addresses that have held Bitcoin for up to five years accounted for much of the recent selling activity, while long-term holders remained mostly inactive despite weakening sentiment.

VanEck also reports that balances in wallets holding BTC for three to five years have dropped by 32% over the past two years. This shift is described not as capitulation, but as a rotation among investor types.

Additionally, open interest in perpetual futures has fallen 20% since October 9, and funding rates have returned to levels typically seen during bearish phases. According to VanEck, these conditions suggest Bitcoin has entered a “reset” phase—one that historically precedes periods of recovery.

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Weak Economic Data from the U.S.

One of the most closely watched developments was the release of U.S. CPI data. The headline inflation rate came in slightly above expectations, suggesting that price pressures may be more persistent than previously thought.

Earlier in the week, labor market revisions shocked analysts. Data revealed that the U.S. economy created roughly 1 million fewer jobs in the year ending March than initially reported — the largest downward revision in U.S. history.

August’s jobs report added to the concerns, showing only 22,000 new jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.3%. At the same time, initial jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021.

This combination of slower growth and sticky inflation has reignited fears of stagflation.

Bitcoin and Risk Assets Push Higher

Despite these worrying signals, risk appetite in financial markets remains strong. Bitcoin broke above $116,000 over the weekend and nearly filled the CME futures gap at $117,300 left from August.

U.S. equities also reflected this optimism. The S&P 500 index notched a record close for the second consecutive day, fueled by bets on easier monetary policy. This highlights investors’ renewed interest in risk-on assets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart continues to look constructive. Since the September low of $107,500, the price has formed a series of higher lows. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP) — a key bull market support level — has reached an all-time high of $109,668.

Rate Cut Expectations Build Momentum

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut in September, with a total of three cuts expected by the end of the year.

If realized, these moves could keep risk sentiment alive and serve as a bullish catalyst for both cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities.

*Not Investment Advice!

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Solomon: A 25 Basis Point Cut Is More Realistic

In an interview with CNBC, Solomon stated: “I don’t think a 50 basis point cut is on the table.”

Market data aligns with his cautious stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, only 7.8% of traders anticipate a half-point cut at the September 17 meeting. Instead, a dominant 92.2% expect a smaller 25 bps reduction. Solomon himself emphasized that this measured step is the more probable outcome.

Signs of a Softening Labor Market

Beyond rate speculation, Solomon highlighted emerging weakness in the U.S. labor market:
“There’s no question that we’re seeing some softening in employment trends,” he said.

He added that depending on how economic conditions unfold, one or even two more rate cuts could still occur before the end of the year.

Implications for the Crypto Market

Lower interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of safer assets like bonds, often pushing investors toward higher-risk, higher-reward markets such as cryptocurrencies.

Crypto trader Mister Crypto suggested on X that a 50 bps cut would trigger explosive growth: “If that happens, crypto will smash through previous all-time highs.”

However, blockchain analytics firm Santiment issued a cautionary note. The surge in social media hype around a September cut, the platform warned, may indicate investor euphoria is overheating—often a signal of a potential local top.

Shifting Bank Forecasts

Standard Chartered recently revised its outlook, pointing to August’s weaker-than-expected jobs data as justification for seeing a 50 bps cut within the realm of possibility.

Meanwhile, Bank of America, which previously ruled out any cuts in 2025, has reversed course. The bank now projects two separate 25 bps reductions—one in September and another in December.

These adjustments followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22, where he hinted at a possible rate cut in the near term.

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Fed’s Move Could Ignite the Bear Market!

On March 8, Timothy Peterson posted on X, saying, “It only needs one trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year.” Just a day earlier, Jerome Powell had stated that there’s no rush to lower interest rates.

Speaking in New York, Powell remarked, “We do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.” These statements have increased uncertainty in the markets.

Could Bitcoin Drop to $57,000?

Peterson, using his Nasdaq decline model, estimated that if a bear market begins, Nasdaq could drop by 17%. Adapting this to Bitcoin, he predicted a 33% decrease, potentially bringing BTC down to $57,000.

However, Peterson noted that such a drop is unlikely. “Traders and opportunists hover over Bitcoin like vultures,” he explained, adding that if Bitcoin approaches $57,000, buyers will likely step in before it gets that low. He expects Bitcoin to bottom closer to the $70,000 range.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Peterson recalled how, in 2022, many expected Bitcoin to bottom at $12,000, but it only dropped to $16,000. “The same could happen here. If the bottom is expected at $57,000, a 25% higher level would be around $71,000,” he added.

Bitcoin was trading near $71,000 on November 6, after Donald Trump won the US election. It then rallied for a month, surpassing $100,000 by December 5.

In January 2025, Arthur Hayes forecasted a correction in BTC prices to the $70,000–$75,000 range. He also predicted a rally to $250,000 by the end of the year. Blockware Solutions offered a more conservative bear case, projecting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 if the Fed reverses its stance on interest rate cuts.

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Mericle’s comments follow the release of the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which came in at 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with expectations. This data point has reignited speculation about whether the Fed might accelerate its timeline for interest rate cuts.

When asked about the likelihood of a rate cut in September, Mericle indicated sympathy for the idea but expressed some doubt. He suggested that the Fed might hint at an upcoming rate cut in its next meeting but cautioned that it was unlikely to be explicitly planned for September.

Mericle believes the Fed will wait until the release of July inflation data before making a definitive decision. If the data is deemed acceptable, he expects the Fed to signal a rate cut in September.

Despite the volatility in inflation data this year, Mericle remains confident in the Fed’s inflation strategy. He pointed to the rebalancing of the labor market and the normalization of inflation expectations since late last year.

Mericle also emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate and the recent shift in focus towards the Fed due to softer labor market data. While characterizing the labor market data as mixed, he noted the 2.8% GDP growth in the last quarter and the continued strong job gains.

Looking ahead, Mericle anticipates a need for approximately 150,000 jobs per month to stabilize the unemployment rate. He noted the mixed signals and suggested that the upcoming jobs report would likely receive more attention than usual due to the upward trend in the unemployment rate.

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