Bitcoin Scarcity Index on the Rise

According to market data, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has risen to approximately 5.10. This value represents the highest level seen since October 2025.

The Scarcity Index is used as an indicator that measures the balance between Bitcoin supply readily available for trading on exchanges and demand pressure. A high index level shows that the amount of Bitcoin ready for sale in the market has decreased compared to historical averages.

This situation typically signals a change in investor behavior. Many investors prefer to withdraw their Bitcoin to cold wallets or hold it long-term instead of keeping it on exchanges. In such an environment, any sudden increase in demand can lead to faster price movements due to limited liquidity in the market.

Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges Are Declining

Another data point supporting the supply tightening is the total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. According to on-chain analyses, the total BTC amount on exchanges has fallen to approximately 2.7 million BTC. This figure stands out as one of the lowest levels seen since the end of 2020.

The decline in exchange reserves is considered an important signal indicating that investors are tending to hold their assets for longer periods.

Whale Wallets Reach Record Levels

Parallel to the supply tightening in the market, large investors’ Bitcoin accumulation is also increasing. According to current data, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has reached 20,031, setting a new record. At current prices, a wallet holding 100 BTC is worth approximately $7.15 million.

In addition, approximately 954 thousand wallets hold between 1 and 100 BTC, while 57.6 million wallets have 1 BTC or less. This distribution reveals that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated among large investors while the small investor base remains quite broad.

Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less

Despite Bitcoin’s price having declined approximately 43% from its October peak, long-term investors appear to be acting more cautiously on the selling side than expected.

According to the data, long-term investors spent around 15.1 million BTC in the 2025 cycle. This figure is slightly below the 15.3 million BTC sold in the 2021 cycle. In previous market cycles, long-term investor spending was recorded at 7.3 million BTC and 13.6 million BTC respectively.

The structural changes in the market are also seen as an important factor influencing these figures. The increase in institutional investors, ETFs, and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is reshaping the definition of “long-term investor” over time.

Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Changing

While ETFs must hold a certain level of reserves to meet investor demand, some companies continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. This situation may contribute to a more balanced selling pressure in the market compared to previous cycles.

Rising scarcity signals, whale accumulation, and limited selling by long-term investors indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening further. However, whether this will create a strong upward movement in price will depend on how demand evolves in the coming period. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,526 amid the general market uptrend, gaining approximately 3% in the last 24 hours.

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The Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle on September 18, 2024. It has now been 522 days since that first move. Historically, liquidity has tended to rotate into risk assets within a 500–1000 day window following the start of easing cycles. While the calendar may suggest a favorable setup, the decisive factor will be incentives.

Falling Yields, Shifting Incentives

As of January 2026, the effective federal funds rate stands at 3.64%, down from 4.22% in September 2025. Money market fund yields have followed suit, averaging around 3.58%. This compression in returns reduces the relative appeal of holding cash and forces investors to reconsider asset allocation decisions.

For the week ending February 18, 2026, total money market fund assets reached $7.791 trillion. Of this amount, $6.405 trillion is allocated to government funds, $1.242 trillion to prime funds, and $0.144 trillion to tax-exempt funds. Retail investors account for $3.082 trillion, while institutional investors hold $4.709 trillion. Institutional capital, often reserved for payroll, vendor payments, and credit facilities, typically moves more cautiously.

Even small reallocations carry significant implications. A 1% outflow equals approximately $78 billion, while a 5% shift would amount to roughly $390 billion. The scale alone underscores how meaningful changes in the rate environment could be.

Where Could the Money Go?

In most easing cycles, capital initially rotates toward bonds and investment-grade credit. However, if risk appetite strengthens, equities and digital assets may also attract flows. The stablecoin market currently stands at $308 billion, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative inflows of $61.3 billion, demonstrating that crypto infrastructure can absorb substantial capital. A mere 0.5% reallocation from money market funds would represent about $39 billion in potential inflows.

Three Possible Paths

A gradual and cautious easing cycle may result in limited outflows of 0–2%. A faster “soft landing” scenario could drive reallocations of 5–10%. In contrast, a recession-driven cutting cycle might initially boost money market balances by 3–8% as investors seek safety.

Ultimately, incentives matter more than timelines. As yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding cash rises. For Bitcoin, a marginal-demand-driven asset, the direction and speed of capital rotation from this enormous cash reserve may prove decisive.

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From $50.9 Billion to $41.4 Billion

In November, Binance held roughly $50.9 billion in stablecoin reserves. That figure has now fallen to around $41.4 billion, marking a decline of close to $10 billion in just three months. As a result, reserves have returned to levels not seen since October.

Stablecoin balances on exchanges are widely viewed as a proxy for deployable liquidity. Funds parked in stablecoins often represent “dry powder” ready to re-enter the market. When these balances shrink, it can signal that investors are either stepping to the sidelines or converting digital holdings back into fiat currencies.

Binance Still Dominates, But Signals Matter

Despite the decline, Binance continues to account for approximately 64% of total stablecoin reserves held across all cryptocurrency exchanges. That dominance underscores its central role in global crypto liquidity.

However, when a platform of this magnitude experiences a noticeable contraction in reserves, it becomes a development worth monitoring. A sustained reduction may suggest cooling demand, reduced trading activity, or a broader pullback in risk appetite.

Generally, falling exchange stablecoin reserves indicate that investors are withdrawing liquidity rather than positioning for near-term re-entry into crypto markets. This dynamic can contribute to softer price action and limit the strength of potential rebounds.

Total Stablecoin Market Caps Remain Flat

According to DeFiLlama data, the total stablecoin market capitalization has plateaued slightly above $300 billion since October. This follows two years of significant expansion, during which stablecoin circulation increased by roughly 150%.

The last major contraction occurred in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse, with recovery only gaining traction in November 2023—about 18 months later.

Fed Policy Adds Pressure

Crypto liquidity is also closely tied to U.S. monetary policy. At present, expectations for a rate cut in March remain low. CME futures markets indicate a 95.5% probability that interest rates will stay unchanged, limiting the likelihood of a near-term liquidity boost for risk assets.

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Strong Daily Gains Signal Renewed Demand

Gold climbed to $4,964, recording a 3.85% increase over the past 24 hours. Silver outperformed by a wide margin, rising to $77.94 with a striking 9.88% daily gain. These moves point to accelerating demand for hard assets, particularly as investors reassess risk exposure across global markets.

Extreme Volatility Defines the Gold Market

The opening weeks of 2026 have been unusually turbulent for gold. During the first four weeks of the year, prices surged by nearly 30%, reflecting aggressive buying pressure. This rally, however, was abruptly interrupted by a single-day decline of 10% last week—the steepest daily drop in more than four decades.

As a result, one-week realized volatility spiked above 90%, highlighting the intensity of recent price swings. Such extreme movements have temporarily weakened gold’s traditional role as a short-term safe-haven asset. In particular, leveraged and short-term investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover losses, amplifying downside pressure during the correction.

Record Highs Fueled by a Weak Dollar

Earlier this month, spot gold reached an all-time high of $5,600 per ounce. This historic peak was largely driven by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to levels not seen in nearly four years. The weakening dollar significantly increased gold’s appeal on a global scale, pushing prices rapidly higher.

However, the magnitude of the move also contributed to instability, as rapid appreciation was followed by equally aggressive profit-taking and forced selling.

China’s Central Bank Reinforces a Strategic Shift

In January 2026, the People’s Bank of China added 40,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves. This brought China’s total gold holdings to 74.19 million troy ounces, now valued at approximately $369.58 billion. Compared to the previous month, the valuation of these reserves increased by about $50.13 billion, driven both by continued accumulation and rising prices.

This development reflects a deliberate shift in reserve management strategy. Rather than responding to short-term market fluctuations, China is using gold to reduce reliance on foreign currency reserves—particularly the U.S. dollar—and to strengthen resilience against geopolitical and financial risks.

Gold’s Expanding Role in Central Bank Reserves

Gold has now become the second-largest asset in global central bank reserves, trailing only the U.S. dollar. China’s consistent accumulation underscores a broader structural trend: gold is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value and a geopolitical hedge, with strategic importance outweighing short-term volatility.

Overall, the renewed surge in gold and silver highlights a market environment where price instability and strategic demand coexist—shaping a complex but increasingly significant role for precious metals in the global financial system.

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A declining exchange balance historically reduces immediate selling pressure and often sets the foundation for stronger price movements when demand increases.

Over 400,000 BTC Withdrawn From Exchanges in One Year

Since December 2024, more than 403,000 Bitcoin have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges. This amount represents roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. A significant share of these coins has moved into personal cold wallets and long-term storage addresses.

Such behavior typically reflects investor confidence and a reduced appetite for short-term selling. At the same time, Bitcoin has been trading near the $90,000 level, making the continued outflow even more notable. Historically, periods where exchange balances fall during high price levels often coincide with reduced downside risk.

Institutional Accumulation Is Gaining Momentum

Not all Bitcoin leaving exchanges is heading into private wallets. A substantial portion is being absorbed by institutional players, particularly exchange-traded funds and publicly listed companies. These entities have steadily increased their Bitcoin holdings over recent months.

Current figures show that ETFs now control more than 1.5 million BTC, while public companies hold over 1 million BTC. Together, these institutional wallets now contain more Bitcoin than all exchanges combined. This marks a structural shift in the market, where long-term capital is becoming more influential than short-term speculative trading.

What a Tightening Supply Means for Price Dynamics

As of late November, the total Bitcoin balance held on exchanges stands near 2.11 million BTC. When compared with institutional holdings, roughly 11% of the total Bitcoin supply is now locked within ETFs and corporate treasuries.

This tightening of liquid supply has major implications for future price behavior. With fewer coins readily available for trading, any surge in demand could trigger faster and sharper upward price movements. The ongoing reduction in exchange reserves suggests that supply-side pressure is building quietly in the background.

If demand continues to grow while accessible supply remains constrained, Bitcoin’s long-term price dynamics could become increasingly sensitive to new inflows of capital.

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“Digital Assets are the Future, the US should be the Leader”

In a post, Lummis said:

Digital assets are the future, and if the United States wants to remain a global leader in financial innovation, Congress needs to urgently pass bipartisan legislation establishing a comprehensive legal framework for digital assets and that strengthens the U.S. dollar with a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Lummis stated that he aims to get bipartisan support for the drafting and passage of this legislation. He also believes that using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, just like oil or other national reserves, would stimulate the economy and stabilize financial markets.

Names Leading Digital Asset Laws

This subcommittee, led by Lummis, will play a central role in shaping the US approach to digital assets. Members of the committee include prominent figures such as newly elected Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno and Arizona Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego. These names were heavily supported by crypto-backed political action committees in the 2024 elections.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Debate

The idea of the US creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve draws attention in parallel with the increasing importance of cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. This move by Lummis is considered as an indicator of the US’s plans to support its financial future with digital assets.

A New Era for the Crypto Industry

Lummis’s chairmanship of the subcommittee could accelerate a clearer legislative framework for the sector. This development signals that steps will be taken to both encourage innovation and help ensure economic stability in the markets.

These steps for US leadership in the crypto economy could reshape the future of digital assets. Under Senator Lummis’ leadership, digital asset regulations and Bitcoin reserve plans are likely to become more concrete.

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Trump Considers Creating Digital Reserves with Solana and XRP

Recently, Trump’s increasing interest in the cryptocurrency market and his statements about integrating these digital assets into economic strategies have sparked new debates about the future of the sector.

Cryptos like Solana and XRP are not only being considered for their technological advancements but also for their U.S. origin, which could make them preferable to Trump. Particularly, XRP stands out for its speed and low costs in financial transactions and digital payments, while Solana has proven itself as an important player in smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps).

Trump viewing cryptocurrencies as an option for national reserves may symbolize an attempt to find alternatives to the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global markets.

Recognizing the potential of cryptocurrencies, Trump believes these digital assets could play a significant role in the future. This could also be part of a strategy to reinforce the U.S. economic power through digitalization and innovative financial systems.

This development seems likely to not only highlight Trump’s interest in cryptocurrencies but also raise the topic of the integration of the crypto world with the traditional financial system.

Trump’s actions in this regard could impact not only the financial future of the U.S. but also the direction of global cryptocurrency markets.

Recently, Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) cryptocurrencies have attracted significant attention due to notable developments and price increases in the markets.

Along with the news, XRP surged by over 15%, while SOL rose by more than 10%.

XRP’s Price Surge and SEC Case

XRP’s price reached $3.18, marking a peak. This rise is associated with factors like the decline in U.S. core inflation and the increased likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Additionally, the expectation of a positive outcome in XRP’s ongoing case with the SEC has also increased investor interest.

Solana’s ETF Applications and Investment Expectations

ETF applications for Solana and XRP are generating significant interest in the crypto market. JPMorgan analysts predict that these ETFs could attract a total investment of $13.6 billion in their first year. Solana-based products are expected to garner $2.7-5.2 billion, while XRP-based ETFs are expected to raise $4.3-8.4 billion.

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aiPump works similarly to Pump Fun for AI-powered agents. The platform allows users to create AI agents and meme coins easily without the need for coding.

aiPump’s Key Features

• Drag-and-Drop Interface: AI-based agents can be easily designed using a drag-and-drop method, making it accessible even for users with no technical knowledge.
• Multi-Platform Integration: AI agents provide a dynamic user experience by interacting on major social platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and others. Additionally, they offer seamless interaction by broadcasting videos.
• Innovative Tokenomics Model: The fair launch system places 100% of your AI agent’s meme coin supply in the liquidity pool, ensuring equal conditions for the community.
• Consciousness-Based Transparency (Proof of Consciousness): You can see how AI agents think, learn, and make decisions, increasing community trust and engagement.

AI Agent Functions and Advantages

• Social Interaction: AI agents autonomously interact with users by posting on social media platforms, responding to comments, and engaging in messaging. This feature enhances their presence on digital platforms by providing a human-like experience.
• Content Creation: AI agents produce content like memes, tweets, articles, and videos, offering both informative and entertaining experiences. This makes them ideal content creators for individuals and projects alike.
• Economic Activities: AI agents can manage virtual wallets, trade on behalf of users, and engage with DeFi protocols by executing predefined financial strategies, actively participating in the digital economy.

Creating AI Agents and Tokens with aiPump

• Customize Your AI Agents: aiPump allows users to customize the communication style, goals, and behaviors of their AI agents. Users can personalize agents’ visual attributes (avatars, voices) to create a unique digital identity.
• Tokenization: AI agents can be linked with a unique AI Meme Coin. This token enables ownership rights and transparent transaction tracking on the blockchain.
• Monetization and Ownership: AI agents can be supported by the community through an ownership model, where both the community contributes to the agents’ growth and gains from potential profits.

Investors

aiPump has already proven its success in creating innovative AI agents. To date, three AI agents have been successfully launched, reaching a total value locked (TVL) of $10 million.

The platform has collaborated with leading projects such as Ape Terminal, LayerAI, RWAX, and HappyCat, supporting the creation of AI agents.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Shared, That Memecoin Flew: Up 500%!

Additionally, aiPump is the first platform to allow anyone to easily create AI agents with its drag-and-drop interface, without the need for coding knowledge.

Just as Pump Fun made creating meme coins easier, aiPump is revolutionizing the creation of AI agents in the sector.

Token Distribution and Details

• Sales: 200,000,000 (20%) – Funds raised from token sales will be used for project financing, product development, and community building.
• Team: 100,000,000 (10%) – Allocated to the team members who manage, develop, and sustain the project. This allocation aims to boost motivation and ensure long-term commitment.
• Advisors: 50,000,000 (5%) – Reserved for advisors who guide the project and provide strategic support.
• Partnerships: 100,000,000 (10%) – Used for establishing strategic collaborations and supporting existing partnerships.
• Liquidity, Market Makers, Exchanges: 150,000,000 (15%) – Ensures necessary liquidity for token trading on exchanges and market maker operations.
• Reserve: 100,000,000 (10%) – Kept as a safeguard for future growth opportunities and emergencies.
• AI Agent Business Development: 100,000,000 (10%) – Used to support the business development of AI agents, new integrations, and expansions.
• Long-Term Growth: 100,000,000 (10%) – Allocated to ensure the sustainability of the project and the expansion of the ecosystem.
• Marketing: 100,000,000 (10%) – Used to increase brand awareness, community building, and fund marketing campaigns.

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First Movement in Bitcoin Reserves After Nine Months

This transaction marked the first activity in Tether’s Bitcoin wallet after a nine-month hiatus. With the purchase, the company’s total Bitcoin reserves reached 82,983 BTC, valued at approximately $7.68 billion. The average acquisition cost per Bitcoin is calculated at $36,125. Additionally, this investment has provided Tether with an unrealized gain of $4.72 billion.

Strategic Investments and Diversification Goals

In line with a strategy announced in May 2023, Tether decided to allocate 15% of its profits to Bitcoin investments. This move has positioned the company as the sixth-largest holder of Bitcoin. Tether views its Bitcoin investments not only as a store of value but also as part of a diversification strategy aimed at emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, Bitcoin mining, and decentralized communication.

Robust Reserves with Bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin

In addition to Bitcoin, Tether holds $100 billion worth of bonds and 48.3 tons of gold. The company’s total profit for 2024 is projected to exceed $7.7 billion. With these figures, Tether has surpassed countries like Germany and the United Arab Emirates in bond investments, ranking among the world’s largest bondholders.

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If the proposal, which will be put to a community vote, is accepted, BUIDL will join Frax USD’s reserve assets. Tokenised real-world assets are increasingly being used to back stablecoin reserves.

In October 2024, BlackRock proposed using BUIDL as collateral for crypto derivatives transactions on platforms such as Binance and OKX. In addition, Elixir Protocol’s deUSD stablecoin is traded on the Curve platform with BUIDL collateral.

BlackRock’s move could create a strong alternative to giants such as Tether and Circle in the crypto derivatives markets.

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