Bitwise: A “Core Asset” for Professional Investors

The report was authored by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who emphasized that large platforms and professional allocators are now viewing Bitcoin as a “core portfolio” element. This shift comes after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their approvals on major national account platforms.

Bitwise noted that from 2017 to 2024, it received zero requests for long-term assumptions. However, in just this year alone, a dozen requests have been made—highlighting that institutional investors are no longer treating Bitcoin as a “side bet” but rather as a primary investment option.

Low Correlation and Strong Diversification

According to the preview report, Bitcoin’s expected returns, volatility, and correlations compare favorably with traditional asset classes. Bitwise defines Bitcoin’s correlation between −0.5 and 0.5, making it a low-correlation asset compared to stocks, bonds, or real estate.

For investors seeking diversification, this characteristic strengthens Bitcoin’s role in modern portfolios—alongside other assets like ethereum or even certain altcoins.

Institutional Accumulation and ETF Impact

Launched in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have quickly grown to massive scale. Today, these products manage more than $146 billion in assets and hold nearly 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

At the same time, corporations continue to accumulate BTC. Led by MicroStrategy, public company treasuries now hold 629,376 BTC—worth over $80 billion. To finance these large-scale purchases, many firms have turned to capital markets through equity and convertible debt offerings.

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What’s Driving This Forecast?

According to Citi’s latest research, the revised projection is based on three core factors:

• User adoption growth

• Global macroeconomic trends

• Demand for spot ETFs

The bank’s analysts model a 20% increase in Bitcoin network adoption, which creates a linear network effect. Alone, this factor could add approximately $75,000 to the current price level.

On the downside, weakening equities and gold performance could shave off about $3,200 from the price projection. However, an estimated $15 billion in ETF inflows is expected to add nearly $63,000 in value. Taken together, these assumptions result in a base case estimate of $135,000 per Bitcoin.

ETF Flows Becoming a Major Price Driver

Citi emphasizes that spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved in the U.S. in January 2024, now play a far more significant role in driving price action. Recent data suggests that over 40% of BTC’s price movements are directly influenced by ETF flows.

This surge in institutional interest is accelerating Bitcoin’s integration into traditional finance. Citi highlights that as Bitcoin becomes more entrenched in indexes, faces fewer regulatory hurdles, and attracts larger institutional investors, its price is now being shaped as much by capital flows as by its technological adoption.

The Risk Is to the Upside

Citi’s analysts believe the risk to their forecast is tilted upwards. While user activity is declining at a slower rate than expected, ETF demand is growing faster than anticipated. This combination suggests that network effects could persist longer than previously modeled — adding further bullish momentum.

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According to analysis by The Kobeissi Letter based on Bitbo data, the S&P 500 has declined by 15% against Bitcoin this year. This suggests that digital assets are outperforming traditional financial instruments. Bitcoin has once again highlighted this disparity — and it’s not limited to just this year. 

99.98% Drop Against Bitcoin Over 13 Years 

As The Kobeissi Letter notes, the S&P 500 has lost 99.98% of its value against Bitcoin since 2012. This data clearly illustrates how powerful Bitcoin’s long-term returns have been for investors. 

Truly incredible:

The S&P 500 in Bitcoin terms is now DOWN -15% year-to-date.

Since 2012, the S&P 500 in Bitcoin terms is down -99.98%.

We are all witnessing history. https://t.co/DsoHhJQXvo pic.twitter.com/UHETngTqGy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 11, 2025

Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed $118,800 on Coinbase this past Friday. BTC has risen 9% weekly and gained 24% in the first half of 2025. The 24-hour increase stands at 5.5%. This rally is driven by one key factor: massive institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

Charlie Bilello pointed out that Bitcoin hasn’t just outperformed indices — it has also beaten major tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX). 

Last 10 Years…
Bitcoin $BTC: +40,450%
NVIDIA $NVDA: +34,815%
Tesla $TSLA: +1,702%
Netflix $NFLX: +1,206%
Microsoft $MSFT: +1,199%
Amazon $AMZN: +926%
Meta $META: +751%
Apple $AAPL: +691%
Google $GOOGL: +556%
S&P 500 $SPY: +262%
Gold $GLD: +175%
US Inflation (CPI): +35%

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 11, 2025

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Attracting Investors 

In 2025, ETF investors quickly turned to Bitcoin. The 12 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 1,264,976 BTC — over 6% of the total Bitcoin supply. According to Bitbo, the market value of these holdings has reached $148.6 billion. 

Thanks to strong demand, spot ETFs became the third-largest fund inflow category in the first half of 2025. Gold and short-term government bonds ranked first and second. This data, shared by State Street, reflects institutional investors’ increasing interest in cryptocurrencies. In fact, last Thursday marked the second-largest daily inflow in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF history, with $1.17 billion in new capital entering these products in just one day. 

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The biggest contribution of the day came from BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) fund. IBIT recorded the highest inflow with $164 million. Fidelity’s FBTC fund followed with $32.85 million in second place. Bitwise, VanEck, and Ark 21Shares also contributed to this upward trend. 

• FBTC (Fidelity): $32.85M inflow – Total net inflow $11.80B
  ARKB (Ark & 21Shares): $1.79M inflow – Total net inflow $2.39B
  BTC (WisdomTree): $1.44M inflow
  GBTC (Grayscale): $0 inflow – Continuing negative trend with a total net outflow of -$23.25B 

In total, the net asset value of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached $133.5 billion, which corresponds to approximately 6.23% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

On the other hand, Spot Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $26.46 million on June 26. This outflow may indicate some investors taking short-term profits. Since there is no fully approved ETF market yet on the Ethereum side, such fluctuations are common. 

• ETHE (Grayscale): -$27.45M outflow – Total net outflow -$4.30B
  ETH (Grayscale): -$12.39M outflow – Total net inflow $738.32M
  ETHA (BlackRock): +$5.89M inflow – Total net inflow $5.47B
  FETH (Fidelity): +$4.87M inflow – Total net inflow $1.62B 

In conclusion, June 26 data indicates strengthened investor confidence in Bitcoin, while investors remain cautious about Ethereum. 

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Ethereum ETFs Continue Their Steady Rise 

BlackRock’s IBIT product alone received $217 million in investments during yesterday’s trading session. Fidelity’s FBTC ETF recorded $105 million, while Bitwise saw a net inflow of $15 million. Overall, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a total of $350 million. 

BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF, ETHA, stood out with a $102 million inflow, signaling rapidly growing institutional confidence in Ethereum. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have seen positive inflows for six consecutive weeks, marking their strongest period since their September 2024 launch. 

Total assets under management (AUM) for Ethereum ETFs have reached $3.9 billion. Ethereum’s staking feature and smart contract infrastructure continue to strengthen its position among financial instruments. 

Strong Two-Month Trend for Bitcoin ETFs 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced daily positive inflows since April 17, 2025. During this period, total inflows have exceeded $11.2 billion. Institutional investors are shifting from short-term trading to long-term strategies. 

These investments demonstrate that Bitcoin is accepted not only as digital currency but also as a secure investment vehicle. The inflow volume supports the belief that Bitcoin’s price will remain above $105,000. 

Spot ETFs Change Crypto Market Psychology 

As institutional investors move towards spot ETF products, trust in the crypto market grows. This confidence encourages retail investors to take bolder actions. Moreover, these products facilitate easier integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system. 

This transition not only shifts market perception but also enables broader acceptance of technologically advanced cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. Furthermore, mechanisms like staking provide passive income to investors, accelerating demand for Ethereum ETFs. 

In the last 24 hours, $450 million flowed into BTC and Ethereum ETFs, demonstrating how pivotal institutional capital will be for the future of crypto assets. 

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Show Strong Comeback 

Heading into June 17,  Bitcoin spot ETFs kicked off the week strongly with $408.6 million in daily inflows on June 16 — one of the highest daily figures in recent weeks. Notably: 

• BlackRock’s $IBIT product led with $266.6 million. 
• Fidelity’s $FBTC ETF attracted $83 million. 
• Bitwise’s $BITB pulled in $41.4 million. 

For the week (June 9–13), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $1.37 billion, marking a solid recovery. 

Ethereum ETFs Diverge with Strong Performance 

This marks the first significant rebound after two weeks of net outflows. Despite stagnant price action, renewed institutional interest reflects directly in ETF flows. As of June 16, Ethereum spot ETFs continue to see substantial inflows. 

The Ethereum side shows even more striking figures: 

Although the inflow streak was interrupted on June 13, by June 16, weekly inflows reached $583 million — the strongest weekly performance since December 2024. 

• BlackRock’s ETHA product led with $381 million.
• Fidelity’s FETH attracted $78.5 million. 

Ethereum ETFs are gaining attention as a diversification tool, particularly due to staking expectations and technical developments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,700, while Ethereum stands at $2,570. 

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As of January 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively exceeded $125 billion, representing more than 6.05% of the current BTC supply.

This milestone comes just one year after the debut of spot BTC ETFs on January 11, 2024.

From January 1 to 24, spot BTC ETFs accumulated $4.2 billion in inflows, accounting for over 6% of all ETF inflows. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, noted the remarkable momentum at the start of the year, adding:

“Spot Bitcoin ETFs quietly ignited at the beginning of the year, with $4.2 billion in inflows, making up 6% of all ETF flows. […] For context, they’ve just surpassed ESG ETFs ($117 billion) and are roughly at the same level as spot gold ETFs.”

Bitcoin ETF Inflows

ETF investments played a key role in Bitcoin’s 2024 price rally, accounting for about 75% of new investments when it reclaimed the $50,000 mark on February 15.

BlackRock’s IBIT Becomes the 31st Largest ETF Worldwide

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, holds the largest BTC ETF with assets exceeding $58 billion. The fund represents 46.4% of the market share among all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.

According to VettaFi data, BlackRock’s fund has grown to become the 31st largest ETF globally, including both crypto and traditional finance products.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Accounts for 54% of Daily Inflows

According to Farside Investors data, BlackRock’s ETF added $321 million in Bitcoin on January 30, accounting for more than 54% of the day’s total $588 million net inflows.

Bitcoin Price Forecasts for 2025: Is $200,000 Possible?

While concerns about a dip to $96,000 in the short term remain, many analysts believe Bitcoin will continue its upward trend throughout 2025.

According to Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, the growing Bitcoin ETF market and BlackRock’s increasing fund could push Bitcoin to $200,000 by 2025.

Lee stated, “Long-term projections indicate steady growth, with some forecasts placing Bitcoin at $200,000 by 2025.”

However, Bitcoin’s price remains sensitive to economic developments. Delays in a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut could introduce downward pressure.

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The launch of DeepSeek increased selling pressure in the crypto market, causing Bitcoin’s value to drop to as low as $97,713. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, surpassing the $100,000 mark once again.

As of the new trading day, Bitcoin is trading at $102,815, while Ethereum stands at $3,194.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has reached $3.44 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market value calculated at $2.03 trillion and Ethereum’s at $385 billion.

Million-Dollar Outflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

On January 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $457 million. This marked the first instance of net outflows following seven consecutive days of net inflows.

Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) faced the largest outflows at $286 million, followed by Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) with $108 million in outflows.

On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced total net outflows of $136 million. Grayscale Ethereum ETF (ETHE) recorded a single-day outflow of $84.22 million, while Fidelity Ethereum ETF (FET) saw an outflow of $68.46 million.

Trump’s WLFI Project Seizes the Opportunity

Taking advantage of yesterday’s dip, Trump’s WLFI project purchased $10 million worth of Ethereum.

The DeFi project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), supported by the Trump family, executed a significant transaction by purchasing 3,247.3 ETH at a price of $3,079, totaling 10 million USDT. This move highlights WLFI’s ongoing strategy to diversify its portfolio.

The project has invested $275 million across seven cryptocurrencies. The portfolio allocation shows a strong preference for major cryptocurrencies, with 65% in ETH and 25% in BTC, making up 90% of the total investments. The remaining 10% is distributed among five altcoins.

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Data from SoSo Value shows BlackRock’s IBIT lead inflows yesterday were $52.52 million. WisdomTree’s BTCW, which achieved its highest net flow yet, came next at $10.5 million. Bitcoin Mini Trust of Grayscale added $9.71 million, while Bitwise BITB noted $3 million in net inflows.

With withdrawals of $30.58 million, Grayscale’s converted GBTC fund was the only Bitcoin ETF to show net losses on Wednesday. For the day, seven more funds—including VanEck’s HODL and Fidelity’s FBTC—saw zero flows.

While trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday was $2.2 billion, on Wednesday it came to $1.79 billion. Since their January introduction, the twelve funds have attracted a cumulative net input of $17.23 billion.

Conversely, spot Ethereum ETFs turned to net outflows and lost $23.68 million yesterday. With Grayscale’s ETHE guiding them—$31.86 million in net outflows—outflows followed.

Fidelity’s FESH, in the in the meantime, had net inflows of $4.7 million. Also reported net inflows were spot ether funds from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton.

While the funds have amassed $387.35 million in net withdrawals since their July 23 debut, the entire daily trading volume of the ether ETFs yesterday was $322.85 million.

While ether dropped 3.03% to $2,431, the Bitcoin price increased 0.52% during the past 24 hours to $57,123.

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Record-Breaking Inflows for Major ETFs

Farside Investors data indicates BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) lead the inflows with $120 million and $115.1 million respectively. With $28.4 million the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF trailed; the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had a rare inflow day of $23 million. Furthermore mentioned were inflows of $6 million and $4 million respectively from the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF.

Weekly Performance and Market Impact

With spot Bitcoin ETF issuers registering $488.1 million, the total inflows on July 12 amounted to the highest flow day since June 5. For the spot Bitcoin ETFs, this fresh flood drove the weekly total to $1.04 billion. These ETFs have attracted $15.8 billion in net inflows since their introduction just over six months ago. This number includes almost $18.6 billion in withdrawals from Grayscale’s flagship Bitcoin product, which was spot form converted after US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permission in January. Though it is somewhat little at $2 million, the only other spot Bitcoin ETF with a net outflow is the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI).

Market Sentiment and Future Prospects

Based on CoinGecko statistics, Bitcoin’s price has witnessed a 1.1% rise over the last 24 hours and now trades at $57,8ishi. Still, it is down around 15% over the last month and is over 21% away from its all-time high.

Meanwhile, several of these Bitcoin ETF issuers are getting ready to introduce spot Ether ETFs, which may open as early as next week, said Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store. These issuers submitted revised S-1 registration statements and got early comments late last month; final approval from the SEC is still pending.

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