Gold Holds Above the $5,000 Threshold

Spot gold declined by 0.7% to $5,029.49 per ounce, while prices were hovering near $5,035 at the time of reporting. The pullback followed a strong session earlier in the week, when gold gained roughly 2% after the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than a week.

Gold previously reached an all-time high of $5,594.82 on January 29, underscoring the strength of the broader uptrend despite recent volatility.

Silver Sees Sharp Swings After Recent Surge

Silver prices have shown even greater volatility. Spot silver fell 2.1% to $81.64 after surging nearly 7% in the previous session. The metal reached a record high of $121.64 on January 29, highlighting the intensity of recent price swings.

Market observers note that speculative positioning has played a significant role in driving silver’s sharp fluctuations, making the metal particularly sensitive to short-term sentiment shifts.

Geopolitical Risks Continue to Support Gold Long Term

According to Tastylive Global Macro Head Ilya Spivak, ongoing economic and geopolitical competition between the United States and China is expected to persist in the coming years. This environment is viewed as structurally supportive for gold over the long term, even if short-term price action remains tied to monetary policy expectations.

In the near term, however, investors remain focused on signals from the Federal Reserve and incoming macroeconomic data.

Fed Policy Expectations Remain Central

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett recently stated that U.S. job growth could slow in the coming months due to moderating labor expansion and productivity gains. His comments reinforced expectations that interest rate cut discussions within the Fed are ongoing.

Markets are currently pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected as early as June. Historically, gold tends to perform better in lower interest rate environments due to its lack of yield.

Markets Await Key U.S. Data Releases

This week’s U.S. calendar includes December retail sales, January Consumer Price Index data, and nonfarm payrolls figures. These releases are expected to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

Other Precious Metals Under Pressure

The broader precious metals complex also faced selling pressure. Spot platinum declined 2.1% to $2,084.09, while palladium fell 1.7% to $1,710.75, reinforcing the cautious tone across the sector.

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Spot Gold Sees Mild Rebound After Recent Pressure

Spot gold rose close to 1% in early Monday trading, climbing to around $4,102 per ounce. The move follows a period of notable selling pressure last week, which analysts believe created room for a corrective rebound.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted that last week’s decline in gold was likely exaggerated and that the modest recovery seen today reflects a natural reaction from the market. Waterer added that fading expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts have reduced gold’s yield advantage. He also emphasized that, despite the end of the government shutdown, the broader economic picture has not yet become fully clear.

U.S. Economic Calendar Could Shape Market Direction

One of the most anticipated indicators this week is Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report, widely viewed as a key measure of the strength of the U.S. labor market and overall economic momentum. Given its influence on interest-rate expectations, the report is likely to play a significant role in determining gold’s near-term direction.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that adjustments are being made to the data release schedule due to disruptions caused by the recent government shutdown.

Rate-Cut Odds Shift as Market Expectations Cool

In interest-rate markets, traders now assign a 43.6% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, while the likelihood of rates being left unchanged has risen to 56.4%. These figures mark a shift from last week, when expectations for an additional cut were stronger. Although the Fed has already lowered rates twice this year, several policymakers have recently expressed caution, pointing to persistent inflation pressures and continued resilience in the labor market.

Gold Holds Its Defensive Appeal

Despite the shifting rate outlook, gold remains supported by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, particularly in environments characterized by uncertainty or lower real yields. As investors navigate this week’s dense stream of economic indicators, many believe the incoming data will be pivotal in determining whether the metal can sustain its upward momentum.

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Data Above Expectations

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 224K (Forecast: 225K, Previous: 226K)

• Annual PPI: 3.3% (Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.3%)

• Monthly PPI: 0.9% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)

The fact that both annual and monthly PPI came in significantly higher than expected has reinforced the market perception that “inflation is still not under control.”

Decline in Rate Cut Probabilities

According to Polymarket data, rate cut probabilities for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting are as follows:

• 50+ bps cut: 5%

• 25 bps cut: 75%

• No change: 19%

These figures show that after the PPI release, the likelihood of a strong 50 basis point cut has weakened considerably, creating a more cautious outlook in the markets.

Sharp Drop in Bitcoin

This negative macroeconomic sentiment also spilled over into Bitcoin prices. The leading cryptocurrency fell 3.51%, dropping below $119,000. Rising inflation data and the decreased likelihood of a more dovish Fed stance have increased selling pressure on risk assets.

Short-term market volatility is expected to continue, with investors closely monitoring both inflation indicators and statements from Fed officials.

$1.05 Billion in Positions Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours!

In the past 24 hours, heightened volatility in the crypto market has led to more than $1.05 billion in liquidations. Of this, $781.97 million came from long positions and $270.19 million from short positions. This highlights the severe losses for leveraged traders and the sharp moves occurring in both directions.

U.S. Stocks Open Lower!

U.S. equities started the day slightly in the red. At the open, the Dow Jones index was down 0.07%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.31%. This weak opening reflects investors’ cautious stance regarding economic data and rate cut expectations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry high risks, and you should always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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On the other hand, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was announced at 0.0% on a monthly basis. Market expectations were for a 0.3% increase, and the previous reading was 0.4%. On an annual basis, PPI came in at 3.2%, aligning closely with market forecasts.

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Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

The implications of these figures for the Federal Reserve (FED)‘s monetary policy are of significant interest to cryptocurrency markets. The lower-than-expected PPI suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, which could reinforce expectations that the FED may adopt a more cautious stance regarding future interest rate hikes. This scenario might support short-term bullish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the broader crypto market.

However, jobless claims remaining lower than expected highlights continued strength in the US economy. This could sustain concerns that the FED may maintain its “hawkish” policy stance, keeping market participants cautious. As a result, crypto markets are navigating mixed signals from the latest economic data.

In the short term, the lower PPI figure may generate positive sentiment within cryptocurrency markets. However, the ongoing strength in the labor market keeps macroeconomic risks on the radar. Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming FED statements and any clues regarding future interest rate policies.

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Non-Farm Payrolls Fell Short of Expectations

The Non-Farm Payrolls data in the US was reported at 143K, significantly below the economists’ forecast of 169K. This may indicate a slowdown in the labor market.

Unemployment Rate Declined

The US Unemployment Rate came in at 4.0%, compared to the expected 4.1%. The lower-than-expected unemployment rate suggests a resilient labor market.

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Average Hourly Earnings Increased

Workers’ Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% expectation. This increase in wages could intensify inflationary pressures and impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

How Will Markets React?

• Bitcoin and crypto markets may experience volatility following the employment data.
• Lower job growth signals economic cooling, while rising wages bring inflation risks into focus.
• These figures are crucial for the FED’s rate decision in the coming months.

Market fluctuations will be closely monitored in the days ahead.

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Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase and indicating a stronger-than-anticipated rise in workers’ income. This follows a previous rise of 0.3%, signaling a recovery trend that aligns with economists’ expectations.

Non-Farm Payrolls reported an addition of just 12,000 new jobs in October, falling significantly short of the projected 223,000. This shortfall may signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Experts suggest that these numbers could increase the likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a pause in the labor market’s recovery and highlighting potential weaknesses in the U.S. economy. Analysts note that this steadiness in the unemployment rate, coupled with moderate wage growth, could increase pressure on the Fed to consider easing its monetary policy. These figures present a challenging economic picture, one that needs careful balance between inflation pressures and labor demand.

Given this data, the U.S. is expected to take a cautious approach in its future monetary policy decisions. The ongoing fluctuations in the dollar market may drive increased interest in safe-haven assets such as gold, as investors assess these developments.

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What Will Fed Do?

The US economy added only 12,000 new jobs in October. This figure fell well short of economists’ expectations of an increase of over 100,000. However, this low employment growth was not perceived by the market as a recession threat. US President Joe Biden stated that this low increase in the workforce was due to the major storm that hit the Florida coast and the strikes by dock workers. Biden stated that he expects employment rates to rise again in November.

These developments in the economy are also being closely monitored in the cryptocurrency market. While the unemployment rate was announced as 4.1%, Bitcoin prices were not directly affected by this development and continue to trade around $70,200.

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The decisions to be taken at the Fed meeting on November 7 will be an important signal for the continuation of the economic recovery and will show whether market participants’ interest rate expectations will be realized.

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The latest macroeconomic data from the US revealed that the PPI increased more than expected. While the expectation was 1.6%, the PPI was announced as 1.8%. The statement from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated, “The final demand index excluding food, energy, and business services increased by 0.1% in September, which was below the 0.2% increase in August. On an annual basis, prices increased by 3.2%.”

This development poses a new challenge for the Federal Reserve, as it follows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which shows increasing inflation pressures. The Kobeissi Letter argued that the Fed’s 0.5 point rate cut last month was unnecessary, saying, “Both Core PPI and CPI inflation are on the rise again.”

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Bitcoin, which benefited from the Fed’s rate cut decision in recent weeks, performed differently than the stock market this week. While cryptocurrencies and risky assets experienced selling pressure following the PPI data, stocks rose.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, expectations for a possible rate cut in November remained unchanged. The probability of a 0.25 point rate cut was close to 84%, while the probability of interest rates remaining stable was around 17%.

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A Look at Bitcoin After the US Data

Bitcoin made upward pricing again after the Fed’s 50 basis point cut. The leading cryptocurrency, which fell to $ 55 thousand, is currently priced above $ 64 thousand.

Bitcoin, which fell to the $62,000 level at the close, will now try the $64,700 resistance band for the third time in a short time after the data comes as expected. If it breaks here, the next target for BTC is the $65,500 region.

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First of all, growth data in the US economy (GDP) may have a direct impact on investor confidence. A GDP data in line with expectations or stronger may indicate that the economic recovery is strong, which may increase demand for risky assets (such as stocks and cryptocurrencies) in general. However, if GDP growth falls short of expectations, investors may turn to safe havens (such as the US dollar and gold) due to concerns about an economic recession. This may create selling pressure on cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

In addition, unemployment claims data are critical for market expectations. Applications that are lower than expected indicate that the labor market is strong and support a positive outlook in the economy. This may cause an increase in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. However, the increase in unemployment claims may create volatility in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, especially with the expectation that the Fed may continue to tighten monetary policy. High unemployment rates or rising applications can reduce the appeal of risky assets and lead to a decline in cryptocurrencies.

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Such economic data, especially in the US, affects investors’ expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate policies. Signs of economic weakness can strengthen the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a long time, which could be a positive development for assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Before US Data

Bitcoin, like other assets, reacted and rose from the $55,000 area it was in at the beginning of September after the Fed lowered interest rates by 50 basis points.

The rise in Bitcoin led to good increases in many crypto assets, including altcoins. However, in today’s statements, the support level to be followed specifically for Bitcoin will be the $63,500 band, while the resistance will be the $65,000 area.

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