According to data from Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — commonly described as “smart money” — accumulated a total of 36,322 BTC between January 10 and January 19. At current market prices, this accumulation is valued at approximately $3.2 billion.

Notably, this buying activity occurred while Bitcoin was trending lower, highlighting a growing disconnect between price movement and on-chain behavior.

Buying Continues Despite the Pullback

Bitcoin fell by 4.55% over the past 24 hours, briefly dipping to around $89,110. Despite the decline, Santiment reported that whale and “shark” wallets continued to add to their holdings.

This pattern suggests that large players are prioritizing longer-term position building rather than reacting to short-term volatility. Historically, periods of heightened uncertainty have often coincided with similar accumulation phases in on-chain data.

Retail Investors Move the Other Way

The most striking aspect of the current setup is the sharp directional split between large holders and retail participants. Wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC sold a combined 132 BTC during the same period. While the dollar value of roughly $11.66 million appears modest, the directional signal is hard to ignore.

As Bitcoin retreated toward the $89,400 level, traditional safe havens like gold and silver continued to test new highs. Even so, on-chain metrics indicate that large Bitcoin holders have not shifted into distribution mode.

Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC increased their balances by 0.27% over the last nine days, while sub-0.01 BTC retail wallets reduced exposure by 0.28%. Excluding geopolitical noise, the platform associates this pattern with longer-term bullish divergences in crypto market structure.

Santiment also notes that the simultaneous presence of smart money accumulation and retail selling tends to increase the probability of upside divergence. However, the timing of such moves remains notoriously difficult to predict.

Tariff Rhetoric Weighs on Price

As for why Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum, macroeconomic and political factors appear to be playing a decisive role. Comments from Donald Trump regarding potential tariffs on Europe, alongside renewed rhetoric tied to Greenland, added pressure to risk assets.

Following these remarks, Bitcoin briefly dropped by nearly 7%. Yet large wallets remaining active on the buy side has made the gap between price action and on-chain behavior increasingly visible.

The Market Remains Cautious

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 32, reflecting elevated levels of investor anxiety. A similar picture emerges from the Altcoin Season Index, which stands at 29 out of 100. Capital rotation into altcoins remains limited, suggesting the market is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.

Analysts Remain Divided

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has pointed out that retail investors appear to have largely stepped away, leaving accumulation activity dominated by whales.

Meanwhile, analyst Will Clemente argues that current price action has failed to generate meaningful excitement around Bitcoin. The ongoing divergence between on-chain signals and market behavior suggests that the broader directional bias has yet to fully resolve.

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As of August 2025, the top 10 ETH addresses hold roughly 70% of the 120.7 million circulating ETH. However, most belong to staking contracts, exchanges, or institutional funds rather than individual whales.  

The Beacon Deposit Contract alone holds 65.88 million ETH, representing 54.5% of the total supply. Validators must wait a set period to withdraw ETH, making this contract a protocol-controlled treasury rather than a personal wallet.  

The Wrapped Ether (WETH) contract also ranks high, holding 2.26 million ETH. These figures highlight the importance of staking and DeFi usage in the Ethereum ecosystem.  

Institutional and Individual ETH Holders  

Exchanges like Coinbase hold 4.93 million ETH, Binance 4.23 million, Bitfinex 3.28 million, Robinhood 1.66 million, and Upbit 1.36 million. These addresses actively support exchange liquidity and staking derivatives.  

Institutional investors are also treating ETH as a treasury asset. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) controls 3 million ETH, Grayscale ETHE manages 1.13 million, and Fidelity’s FETH oversees $1.4 billion in ETH. Together, these institutions control over 5 million ETH, reshaping the Ethereum ownership landscape.  

Individual holders include Vitalik Buterin with 250–280k ETH, Joseph Lubin around 500k ETH, and the Winklevoss twins 150–200k ETH. These numbers emphasize the contrast between corporate and personal ETH ownership.  

Over 130 million addresses exist on Ethereum, but fewer than 1.3 million hold at least one ETH. Ownership is concentrated, with most assets in staking, exchanges, and institutional funds.  

On-chain data confirms Ethereum has moved from individual whales to institutional and protocol-based players. This trend highlights the ecosystem’s corporate depth and the strength of staking infrastructure.  

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According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, this growth is the result of a combination of risk-hedging and expectations of price appreciation. Fund managers are using derivative products to hedge their positions while continuing to seize upside opportunities. 

Another indicator supporting this institutional movement is the rise of spot ETH ETFs. Data from SoSo Value reveals that spot Ethereum ETFs have seen uninterrupted inflows for the past 16 days, with total inflows exceeding $5 billion during this period. 

ETF Inflows Accelerate, BlackRock Leads 

Ethereum ETFs are currently experiencing the strongest streak of inflows since their launch. BlackRock’s ETH ETF is leading this trend and currently holds nearly 3 million ETH. According to ETF analyst Nate Geraci, net inflows into the funds reached $452.72 million on July 25 alone. This figure marks the fourth-largest single-day inflow in Ethereum ETF history. 

Moreover, ETH ETFs have outperformed Bitcoin ETFs in terms of performance over the past 7 days. This indicates that investors are increasing their positions in favor of ETH and that new capital flows are shifting accordingly. 

Whale Addresses Increase, Technical Indicators Support the Rally 

Institutional movement isn’t limited to ETFs. Data from Glassnode shows that 170 new addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have been added to the network in the last 30 days. This increase has brought the total number of such mega whale wallets to 1,050. These types of wallets usually belong to custodial institutions and indicate a strong accumulation trend. 

The price of ETH is currently trading at $3,771. It has risen by 2.41% in the past 24 hours, while daily trading volume has decreased by 40% to $25.38 billion. The total market capitalization has reached $452 billion. 

On the technical side, analyst Merlijn The Trader noted using TradingView data that Ethereum is still moving within its long-term primary channel. This channel previously generated strong reversal signals in 2018 and 2021. Additionally, RSI data indicates that ETH is not currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the rally remains healthy. 

The acceleration in institutional buying, the record open interest in futures, increased ETF inflows, and the rise in mega whale wallets may all create upward pressure on Ethereum’s price in the coming period. The direction of institutional capital appears to favor ETH.

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According to technical analysis, if PENGU maintains above the $0.015 level, it could rise to $0.04. However, some analysts expect a short-term correction down to $0.0175. Still, the overall market sentiment remains positive. 

Game Launches and Telegram Support Boost Token Demand 

One of the most notable factors behind PENGU’s rally is the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem’s entrance into the gaming space. The project attracted a broad audience with its mobile game Pudgy Party. Thanks to the reward mechanism, users increase token demand while playing. 

Mini-games accessible through Telegram have also expanded the ecosystem’s reach. 

More importantly, the newly launched game Pengu Clash, built on TON (The Open Network) blockchain, gained traction. Unlike the traditional play-to-earn model, this game operates on a play-to-win system. Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz describes it as a skill-based competitive arena for users. 

Telegram peaked in mini-games in 2024, and TON still hosts over 2.1 million active wallets. Netz notes that Telegram’s unique and broad user base offers scalability potential, especially as the project expands into markets like Northern Europe. 

Institutional Moves and ETF Filing Fuel the Momentum 

The Pudgy Penguins team is also making headlines with its institutional initiatives. A collaboration with a major racing organization introduced the PENGU mascot to millions. A frequent flyer loyalty program with an airline now allows token holders to earn miles — supporting long-term adoption. 

Additionally, the team appeared at a NASDAQ event in late June. Their discussions on U.S. crypto regulation helped build institutional confidence. One major development is that Canary Capital filed a spot ETF for PENGU. The decision is expected in early 2026. According to documents submitted to the U.S. SEC on March 20, if approved, this would be the first ETF involving NFTs in the U.S. 

Social Media Power and On-Chain Data Back the Rally 

On July 13, Justin Sun tweeted “everyone has become a penguin,” triggering an 11% price jump. Soon after, Coinbase and Binance US updated their X profile images to Pudgy Penguins NFTs. These social media moves had an instant impact on price. 

Everyone will Huddle https://t.co/zIao9ulvcN

— Pudgy Penguins (@pudgypenguins) July 13, 2025

On-chain data shows whale wallets have increased their PENGU holdings by 11% over the last 30 days. There’s also a significant rise in token volume among the top 100 wallets. Meanwhile, open interest has hit a 3-month high. This all points to growing investor interest and strong momentum. 

In conclusion, PENGU has caught a strong bullish trend driven by game integrations, ETF expectations, institutional partnerships, and social media influence. It’s now seen not just as a meme coin but as a Web3-compatible, multifunctional digital asset. 

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What’s the Situation with Futures and Long/Short Ratio? 

Open interest in Bitcoin futures markets hit a record high, reaching a total of $72 billion. This indicates strong participation from major investors. Notably, open interest on CME increased to $16.9 billion.  Another notable metric is the long/short ratio. According to Coinalyze data, as of May 21, 2025, this ratio is 0.85, meaning 45.84% of investors hold long positions while 54.16% hold short positions. This suggests a cautious short-term outlook, though the ratio can shift rapidly during sudden price surges. 

Where Are the Whale Wallets Moving? 

Large investors known as whales have made significant moves recently. A wallet named “bc1qc” bought 4,611 BTC in one week at an average price of $103,075, amounting to roughly $475 million. This wallet’s total holdings reached 22,223 Bitcoin, ranking it among the top 40 Bitcoin holders. Whale activity reflects strong investor confidence. Another whale opened a 40x leveraged long position worth $838 million, earning $22 million in profit. The liquidation price for this position is $100,000, indicating the investor’s confidence that prices won’t drop below this level. 

Stablecoin Volume Rising, Supported by Macroeconomics 

The combined market cap of stablecoins like USDT and USDC reached $151 billion, the highest ever recorded. Considering new capital inflows, this is a significant metric. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which was around 109 in January 2025, dropped 9% to 99.60, showing investors are turning to alternative assets instead of the dollar. 

Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen from 4.8% to 4.52%, boosting interest in riskier assets. Market data suggests BTC could challenge the $110,000 level. Record open interest in futures and large whale purchases support this outlook. The growing stablecoin market and falling yields add further backing. 

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