Haciyev Reşit 
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many altcoins entered 2026 with strong momentum. This early-year surge has renewed optimism in the crypto market, and investors are closely watching whether this momentum will sustain throughout the year. In this context, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan shared his analysis, highlighting three interdependent conditions that he considers critical for a sustainable and healthy crypto bull market.
Market Stability
Hougan emphasizes that large-scale market shocks are one of the biggest barriers to new all-time highs. He refers to the October 10 crash, which led to roughly $19 billion in liquidations in crypto futures, leaving a lasting impact.
- Such sudden, high-volume liquidations can damage investor confidence.
- Concerns over potential liquidations of major market makers and hedge funds in November and December increased selling pressure.
- Recently, Hougan notes that this pressure has significantly eased, signaling improving stability.
Clear U.S. Regulation
The second key factor is clear and comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation.
- Many large-scale liquidations were mostly resolved by the end of 2025.
- For a sustainable long-term uptrend, regulatory uncertainty must be removed.
- Attention is on Washington: Proposed crypto legislation is under Congress review, with the Senate Banking Committee expected to discuss it by mid-January, though this timing isn’t finalized.
Clear regulation would provide confidence for institutional investors and reduce long-term market uncertainty.
Stable Stock Markets
The third condition is a relatively calm and stable stock market.
- Sharp fluctuations in U.S. equities can add pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
- A balanced stock market environment supports upward movement in crypto assets.
“For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to reach new highs, market shocks must decrease, a clear U.S. regulatory framework must be established, and the stock market should remain relatively stable.”
Takeaway
As expectations for a 2026 altcoin bull run grow, these three conditions—market stability, clear U.S. regulation, and calm equity markets—are critical determinants of the market’s direction. The developments in these areas in the coming months will largely shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoins, influencing whether this year sees a sustainable and broad-based crypto rally.