Emre Yumlu 
For much of the recent market cycle, one of the boldest price forecasts for Bitcoin came from BitMine Chairman Tom Lee. He had consistently argued that Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2025. However, his latest remarks suggest a noticeable shift. Lee now says Bitcoin might only “perhaps” revisit its October all-time high of $125,100 before the year ends, signaling a clear softening in tone.
A More Cautious Outlook: “Above $100,000 Still Likely”
In a fresh interview with CNBC, Lee stated that he still sees a strong chance for Bitcoin to finish the year above $100,000. He acknowledged that a new high is possible, but the aggressively optimistic $250,000 target he reiterated throughout early 2024 no longer seems to be part of his current outlook.
This marks the first major retreat from his previously unwavering bullish stance.
Other prominent figures in the industry have expressed similar caution. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz commented earlier this year that only “extraordinary” circumstances could push Bitcoin to such ambitious levels in the near term.
Bitcoin’s Biggest Moves Often Happen in a Handful of Days
One factor Lee emphasized is Bitcoin’s unique price behavior over the years. Historically, the majority of the asset’s annual gains tend to come from a very small number of trading days—typically around ten.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley highlighted this same trend in early 2024, noting that missing these key days often means missing nearly all potential returns for the year.
Data from 2024 reinforces that pattern: the ten strongest trading sessions delivered a combined gain of 52%, while the remaining 355 days averaged a decline of 15%.
Market Pressures Intensify After Tariff Announcement
Bitcoin has been under downward pressure since October 10. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, the crypto market saw nearly $19 billion in liquidations.
As a result, Bitcoin spent six consecutive days below $90,000 before finally recovering above that level earlier this week.
Lee’s Prediction Record: A Mix of Accuracy and Misses
Lee’s forecasting history includes both successful and overly optimistic calls. In 2018, he predicted Bitcoin would reach $125,000 by 2022—an achievement that did not occur until October 2024.
However, his earlier projections in 2017—calling for $20,000 and later $55,000—eventually aligned with market moves in 2020 and 2021.
This article does not constitute investment advice.
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