Emre Yumlu 
The US ADP Nonfarm Employment data released on July 2, 2025, created a surprise in the markets. The announced figure came in at -33K, while expectations pointed to an increase of 99K. The previous month’s data was recorded as 37K.
What Is the ADP Nonfarm Employment Report?
The ADP Nonfarm Employment report is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in private-sector employment in the United States. Prepared by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), this report outlines changes in non-agricultural employment and is often considered a leading indicator for the official labor data. It analyzes employment shifts across small, medium, and large businesses by sector, making it a crucial guide for both investors and economists.
Breakdown of the Latest ADP Employment Figures
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Reported: -33K (33,000 jobs lost in the private sector)
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Expectation: 99K (Markets expected 99,000 new jobs)
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Previous: 37K (May figure, revised to 29K)
July 2025 Data Shocks the Market
The ADP data released on July 2, 2025, showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, a stark contrast to the expected growth. This significant miss from the 99K expectation caused a shockwave in financial markets. While the previous month had recorded a positive figure of 37K, this month’s negative reading stands out as one of the rare occurrences in recent years. Some X (formerly Twitter) users even noted that such figures haven’t been seen since the pandemic period.
This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry a high level of risk, and it is essential to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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