Yeliz Akmaca 
Global markets are once again under pressure. Oil prices have climbed above $100, the dollar posted its strongest weekly gain of the year, and tensions in the Middle East are directly affecting energy markets. Even Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against market turmoil, is being closely watched as investors assess the impact. Experienced market strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a US stock market collapse this year to 35%.
This figure was around 20% just a few months ago—risk perception has clearly shifted.
Interestingly, despite this environment, the crypto market—especially its largest asset—remains relatively stable.
Bitcoin Holds Around $67K
In the first trading hours of the week, the leading cryptocurrency traded at approximately $67,378.
This reflects a 1.1% increase in the past 24 hours, while weekly movements remain largely in the same range.
Other major crypto assets also saw limited gains:
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Ethereum (ETH) rose roughly 2.3% to $1,981, just below the $2,000 psychological level
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BNB reached $624, up 1.4%
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Dogecoin traded at $0.09, up 1.8%
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Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% weekly
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XRP remained steady at $1.35, down about 1% weekly
Crypto markets are showing relative calm, contrasting sharply with global equities.
Global Markets Under Pressure
In Asian trading hours, S&P 500 futures fell more than 2%.
The VIX volatility index, a key risk gauge, has surged to its highest level since the April tariff crisis.
Oil remaining above $100 further complicates the picture. Rising energy costs not only impact business expenses but also push inflation expectations higher, which in turn pressures central banks.
Fed Caught Between Two Fires
Ed Yardeni points out that the US economy is stuck between two pressures:
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The risk of renewed inflation triggered by rising oil prices
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The threat of higher unemployment due to economic slowdown
This scenario limits the Federal Reserve’s policy maneuvering. Yardeni raises the market collapse probability to 35%, while assigning only a 5% chance for a strong bullish scenario.
Bitcoin Correlation with Stocks
Although Bitcoin has recently moved in parallel with tech stocks, new data suggest the correlation is limited.
According to research by NYDIG, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movement can be explained by US equities. The remaining 75% stems from crypto-specific factors.
NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro explains that recent parallels with US software stocks reflect shared macro exposure rather than structural convergence.
What Happens If Risk Aversion Surges?
Historically, during major market stress periods since 2020, investors have tended to move from volatile assets to cash, US dollars, or government bonds.
Bitcoin has not been immune to these sell-offs. Therefore, if global risk-aversion spikes, cryptocurrencies may not remain fully insulated.
Currently, however, crypto markets appear comparatively resilient.
US Markets’ Cushion Is Shrinking
Until recently, US markets were more resilient than other regions, partly due to energy self-sufficiency.
However, the 2% drop in Monday futures signals that even this buffer is weakening.
If global risk appetite continues to decline, US markets—and by extension crypto—may also face pressure. For now, Bitcoin remains relatively stable.
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