Yeliz Akmaca 
US nonfarm payroll data for February is being released today, and it’s on the radar not only for investors but also crypto traders. In January, 130,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%; for February, the expectation is 59,000. These numbers could trigger sudden volatility across risk assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500. While the concrete effects of artificial intelligence on the labor market are still unclear, the report will serve as a critical indicator for market direction.
It is still early to see concrete impacts of AI on the labor market, but the report will be closely monitored for weak job growth or unexpected job losses.
Market-Moving Events on Friday
Besides today’s payroll data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Daly, Paulson, Collins, and Hammack will be key for markets. Rising bond yields are pressuring Fed rate cut expectations, while risk assets are recovering from movements in oil prices. Bitcoin and global equities have stabilized after the early-week sell-off triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions.
Bonds remain cautious; rising yields are bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Strong economic data from the US and ongoing energy-driven price shocks are keeping investors on edge.
Bitcoin and Equities
Bitcoin traded above $70,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 10% since the start of the week. Prices had dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend due to US-Israel-Iran tensions, then briefly climbed to $74,000 on Wednesday.
S&P 500 futures also rebounded; contracts that fell to 6,718 on Tuesday have climbed to about 6,840 at the time of writing.
Oil and Geopolitical Risks
Reports that Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered initial risk-off moves. The US quickly responded, providing escort for tankers and political risk coverage, bringing short-term stability to markets. Brent crude is trading around $85.47.
The bond market remains cautious. According to CME Fed Funds futures, investors now see less than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates twice by 25 basis points this year, down from around 80% before the conflict. Attention is now on today’s job data and wage growth figures.
Labor Data and Fed Expectations
Last month, US labor data exceeded expectations: 130,000 new jobs were created in January, unemployment dropped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Expectations for February are more moderate, suggesting a return to the “low hiring, low firing” pattern seen over the past year.
Jerome Powell’s April meeting will be particularly critical for Fed policy. Higher-than-expected employment or wage growth could weaken rate cut expectations and trigger new market volatility.
Market Notes and Micro Data
- BTC: $70,642 (approx. 10% gain since start of week)
- S&P 500 Futures: 6,840
- Bond yields: rising, Fed cut expectations decreasing
- Oil: brief spike after Hormuz Strait news, now stable
Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube and Twitter for the latest news and updates.