Yeliz Akmaca 
It is a critical day for investors, economists, and market analysts in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment rate data for September at 16:30 TRT. This report will be a key market indicator following August’s announcement of a 22,000 increase in employment and a 4.3% unemployment rate.
According to the Dow Jones consensus, approximately 53,000 new jobs are expected in the public and private sectors in September. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to increase by 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually.
Analysts suggest that if the NFP figure comes in below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, it would confirm a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and could reignite expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. In this scenario, the USD could come under selling pressure, and the EUR/USD pair may rise toward the 1.1700 level. Conversely, if employment exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, EUR/USD could fall below 1.1400. Technical indicators also support the downside potential, with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1574 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading below the midpoint.
Report Features and Background
The September report will be the first official employment release following the prolonged federal government shutdown, ending the data blackout. Although retrospective, it provides crucial insights for investors and Fed officials who relied on alternative private data sources during the shutdown period in Washington D.C.
The BLS will not release a separate October employment report; it will be combined with the November report and published in December. Therefore, the September data will offer only limited visibility into the current state of the labor market. Revisions to July and August data will also be included in the report, potentially increasing its market impact.
Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, stated, “The labor market, like the economy, is holding on. The report indicates a slightly brighter picture than expected, but there is nothing to boast about.”
Possible Scenarios and Market Impact
1. NFP Exceeds Expectations
Example: Employment rises to 70,000, above the 50,000 forecast.
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USD: Strengthens.
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Stocks: May face short-term pressure.
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Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.
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Reason: Strong employment increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, limiting risk appetite.
2. NFP Falls Short of Expectations
Example: Employment increases only 20,000, below the 50,000 forecast.
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USD: Weakens.
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Equities and cryptocurrencies: May rise.
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Gold and safe-haven assets: Could gain value.
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Reason: Weak employment reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike, which markets may interpret positively.
3. Unemployment Rate Falls Below Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.1% instead of 4.3%.
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USD: Strengthens.
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Stocks: May face pressure.
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Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.
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Reason: A stronger labor force increases the likelihood of Fed maintaining a tight monetary policy.
4. Unemployment Rate Exceeds Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.5% instead of 4.3%.
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USD: Weakens.
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Stocks and cryptocurrencies: May rise.
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Economic growth concerns: May increase.
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Reason: Higher unemployment reinforces expectations for Fed policy easing.
Historical Data and Additional Context
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August 2025: Employment +22,000, Unemployment 4.3%
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September 2025 forecast: Employment ~50,000, Unemployment 4.3%
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Goldman Sachs forecast: September +80,000, October -50,000
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Private data indicators: ADP employment data, Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff reports, and other private metrics provide additional context for investors interpreting the report.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that markets are navigating based on available data, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller stressed that policymakers are not “flying blind” despite potential data gaps.
Summary
September’s Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data may trigger short-term volatility for investors but remain one of the most critical indicators for policymakers and market analysts this year. Whether the figures exceed or fall short of expectations, they could cause immediate, noticeable movements in the USD, equities, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. Revisions and subsequent data releases will also provide significant signals for the Fed’s December meeting and overall market direction.
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