Haciyev Reşit 
Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week with a strong move during the Asian session, rising nearly 2.6% to climb above the $90,000 level. However, whether this rally will be sustained is being closely watched by the market. According to Singapore-based crypto analytics firm QCP Capital, reduced liquidity due to the holiday period remains the biggest obstacle to Bitcoin’s price movement.
Can Bitcoin Hold Above $90,000?
Bitcoin’s move above $90,000 resembles the price action seen in the post-Christmas period. However, a confirmed and sustained breakout above this level has yet to materialize. QCP Capital analysts note that the current rally is not driven by a classic short squeeze, but rather supported by spot buying and perpetual options positioning.
This suggests that the market is in a selective and cautious buying phase rather than experiencing a purely technical rebound. The possibility that institutional investors may be re-entering the market is also being carefully monitored.
Lack of Liquidity Is Limiting Price Action
According to QCP Capital, liquidity in the market has dropped significantly due to the holiday season. Low trading volume makes it difficult for Bitcoin to establish a strong and sustainable trend. Analysts emphasize that during such periods, price movements can be unhealthy, as even relatively small trades can cause sharp upward or downward moves. This reflects uncertainty about market direction and a cautious stance among investors.
“Holiday-driven declines in liquidity are preventing a clear directional trend in Bitcoin. Capital is largely sitting on the sidelines.” — QCP Capital
Notable Developments in the Options Market
QCP’s analysis highlights that approximately $26 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired last Friday. Following this expiration, positioning in the options market has shifted noticeably. This indicates that dealers are positioned long gamma on the upside while remaining short on the downside. Analysts note that a sustained breakout above $94,000 could trigger new hedging demand. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $87,200.
Downside Protection Has Declined, Upside Conviction Remains Weak
QCP Capital also points out that December-expiry $85,000 put options were not rolled over, and post-expiration open interest dropped by around 50%. While this signals reduced demand for downside protection, the sharp decline in open interest also indicates that bullish conviction remains weak. This suggests that investors are waiting for liquidity to return before committing to a clear market direction.
According to QCP Capital’s analysis, the primary factor constraining Bitcoin’s current price action is low liquidity. Although attempts above the $90,000 level are noteworthy, a sustainable rally will require stronger volume and increased institutional participation. As liquidity normalizes, a clearer direction is expected to emerge for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
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