Haciyev Reşit 
Despite short-term rebounds in recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to decisively break out of its broader downtrend. Sudden price recoveries have failed to turn into a sustainable uptrend due to the lack of sufficient and consistent buying liquidity in the market. This indicates that investors remain cautious and that capital inflows are still limited. In its latest assessment, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the key fundamental conditions required for a more meaningful and lasting Bitcoin rally, drawing attention to liquidity indicators.
Focus Shifts to Liquidity in Bitcoin
According to Glassnode’s analysis shared on the X platform, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the critical support range between $80,700 and $83,400 in recent weeks has shifted market focus away from short-term price movements toward liquidity conditions. While defending this support zone has so far limited downside risk, it is not considered sufficient on its own to trigger a strong rally. The analysis emphasizes that a true trend reversal and sustainable price increase in BTC require fresh and persistent liquidity inflows. Otherwise, any recovery attempts may remain temporary, with price action continuing to move sideways within a range.
Key Indicator: Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
Glassnode highlights the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio as a crucial indicator for a sustainable uptrend. On-chain data show that strong and lasting price advances— including mid-cycle recoveries over the past two years—have typically occurred when this ratio remained above the level of 5. This threshold is seen as a key reference point signaling healthy capital inflows and strengthened buying demand.
At present, however, these conditions have not yet materialized. According to Glassnode data, the realized profit/loss ratio is currently around 2. This suggests that liquidity constraints persist and that recent price movements reflect limited rebounds rather than a robust upward trend.
Supply Structure May Also Add Pressure
Glassnode’s analysis also points to Bitcoin’s supply structure as a potential source of pressure. On-chain data indicate that roughly 22% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently at a loss. Historically, similar levels were observed during correction phases in Q1 2022 and Q2 2018. Analysts note that this indicates ongoing market fragility and suggest that if Bitcoin were to lose key support levels, the supply currently in loss could once again contribute to selling pressure.
That said, there are no strong signs of panic selling at the moment. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin inflows to Binance remain at historically low levels, indicating that investors are largely choosing to hold their positions rather than sell. This behavior suggests that potential pullbacks may remain short-lived and limited, and that a sharp distribution phase is not currently in play.
Liquidity Is Essential for a Rally
According to Glassnode, short-term volatility in Bitcoin may persist for some time. However, a clear and lasting bullish trend will require a distinct and sustainable improvement in market liquidity. Analysts emphasize that a durable recovery in liquidity indicators would not only support higher prices but also strengthen investor confidence. As a result, liquidity flow data are expected to remain the key determinant of Bitcoin’s next major, trend-defining move in the period ahead.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.