Haciyev Reşit 
As volatility continues in the crypto market, a new risk warning has emerged for Bitcoin. According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, one of the most critical support levels for Bitcoin currently stands at $54,900. Analysts warn that if the current support zone is lost, BTC could experience a deeper correction. Although recent weeks have shown signs of consolidation, on-chain data suggests downside risks have not fully disappeared.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price: $54,900
Glassnode’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s on-chain price floor is around $54,900. This level is based on the “realized price” metric, which represents the average purchase cost of all coins in circulation — making it a key psychological and structural support level. After reaching a peak of $79,000 in January, Bitcoin entered a correction phase and is currently consolidating in the $60,000–$69,000 range. This zone is considered a strong support area formed throughout 2024, particularly defended by medium-term investors.
However, Glassnode warns that if this support breaks to the downside, BTC could retreat toward the realized price level at $54,900. Because the realized price reflects the market’s average cost basis, a drop toward or below this level could significantly increase selling pressure as investor psychology shifts. Glassnode also noted that while Bitcoin faces a strong demand wall during this consolidation phase, macroeconomic uncertainty and weak spot demand continue to pose downside risks. Therefore, maintaining the $60,000 region is critical in the short term.
Exchange Inflows Decline, Long-Term Holders Accumulate
On-chain data shows a noticeable decrease in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, while transfers to long-term holder (LTH) wallets continue. This pattern suggests investors are favoring accumulation over short-term selling. A reduction in exchange reserves lowers the liquid supply available on the market, which could create upward price pressure in the long term. Additionally, low coin movement among long-term holders indicates that strong hands are not currently capitulating.
However, in the short term:
- Weak spot demand
- Low trading volume
- Global macroeconomic uncertainty
- Reduced risk appetite
are limiting upside momentum. Analysts emphasize that renewed institutional inflows and stronger ETF demand will be crucial for determining the market’s next direction. Without a meaningful increase in demand, Bitcoin may continue trading within a narrow range or test lower levels.
Additional Warning from Nic Puckrin
Alongside Glassnode’s evaluation, market analyst Nic Puckrin also highlighted persistent downside risks. According to Puckrin, Bitcoin could pull back toward $55,000. He pointed out that spot trading volumes are at their lowest levels since 2023, and macroeconomic conditions have yet to turn supportive for risk assets. If:
- Interest rates do not decline
- The U.S. dollar does not weaken
- Strong ETF inflows fail to materialize
another wave of selling pressure could emerge. Both Glassnode’s on-chain data and broader market analysis suggest that Bitcoin’s critical support zones should be monitored closely. If the $60,000 range breaks, a move toward $54,900 becomes increasingly likely. Macroeconomic developments, ETF inflows, and institutional demand will remain decisive factors for Bitcoin’s short- and mid-term direction.
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