Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin has lagged behind gold in safe-haven demand. While gold and silver continued to gain value over the past three months, Bitcoin has remained largely sideways. XWIN Research Japan and other market analyses indicate that this divergence reflects increased investor demand for traditional safe assets.
Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.
10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.
Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious
Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.
According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.
Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside
Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.
-
Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.
-
Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.
-
Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.
Bitcoin vs Gold Performance
The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.
Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.
What Investors Should Expect
XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:
-
Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.
-
Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.
However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.