Haciyev Reşit 
The cryptocurrency market started the new day with a limited but notable decline. While the total market capitalization is struggling to surpass the $3 trillion level, pressure stemming from both technical factors and derivatives markets is becoming more apparent for Bitcoin and Ethereum. In particular, large upcoming options expirations combined with low holiday liquidity are creating a cautious market environment.
Total Crypto Market Cap Failed to Break Above $3 Trillion
Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalization declined by approximately $24 billion, falling to around $2.94 trillion. Although the pullback remains limited, the $2.92 trillion level is being closely watched as a key short-term support. Holding above this level is critical to avoiding a deeper correction.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and increasing risk-off behavior as year-end approaches are making it difficult for the market to break above the psychological $3.00 trillion resistance. If the $2.92 trillion support is broken to the downside, total market capitalization could retreat toward the $2.85 trillion range. On the other hand, if holiday sentiment improves and new inflows increase, the market may retest the $3 trillion level.
Bitcoin Consolidates Around $88,000
Bitcoin has been moving sideways around the $88,210 level for nearly ten days. At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $87,900. This tight price action suggests that investors are waiting for both macro developments and year-end positioning to become clearer. If pre-holiday de-risking intensifies, Bitcoin could pull back toward the $86,247 support level. A break below this level could bring the $84,698 zone into focus. Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to hold above $88,210, the $90,308 level stands out as a short-term target.
Macro Developments and Political Uncertainty Increase Risk Perception
The weak outlook in the crypto market is being driven not only by technical levels and derivatives markets, but also by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. The cautious stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve and ongoing inflation uncertainty are limiting appetite for risk assets globally. Statements by Donald Trump regarding foreign policy and energy markets have also brought global risk sentiment back into focus. His comments related to Venezuela, in particular, have introduced new uncertainty surrounding oil supply, sanctions, and energy prices.
Analysts note that such geopolitical risks tend to increase short-term volatility in the crypto market. When risk-off sentiment strengthens in traditional markets, Bitcoin and altcoins often come under pressure as well. For this reason, investors are advised to closely monitor not only technical indicators but also macroeconomic data and political developments.
$23.6 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Adds Pressure
One of the main sources of pressure in the market is the approaching expiration of $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options. According to Deribit data, approximately 268,000 options contracts expired in a single day, marking one of the largest options expiries in Bitcoin’s history. Although the put-call ratio of 0.38 indicates that investors generally maintain a bullish outlook, such a large expiry in a low-liquidity environment can increase price volatility. The “maximum pain” level for Bitcoin options stands near $96,000, well above the current price.
Market analysts commented on the situation as follows:
“Large options expirations make markets more sensitive, especially during holiday weeks. Even small price movements can trigger cascading liquidations and sudden volatility.”
In addition to Bitcoin, approximately $3.8 billion worth of Ethereum options are also nearing expiration. The maximum pain level for Ethereum is estimated at around $3,100, while ETH continues to trade below $3,000. This indicates rising stress not only for Bitcoin, but across the broader crypto market.
Assessment
Overall, the main reasons behind the current decline in the crypto market include the inability to break above the $3 trillion resistance, upcoming Bitcoin and Ethereum options expirations, low holiday liquidity, and short-term risk-off behavior. As the impact of options expirations fades in the coming days, the market is expected to establish a clearer direction. Whether key support levels hold for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the total market capitalization will be decisive for the short-term trend.
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