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The U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are among the most closely watched topics for investors and market analysts heading into 2026. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that he expects the FED to implement at least two interest rate cuts next year. This outlook is seen as a key signal that could shape market expectations for 2026.
FED’s Interest Rate Policy in 2025
In 2025, the Federal Reserve delivered three rate cuts, reducing interest rates by a total of 75 basis points. These cuts, implemented in September, October, and December, largely met market expectations and led to a consensus outlook of just one rate cut for 2026. However, economists remain divided. Some anticipate additional rate cuts as the U.S. economy slows, while others believe rates may stay unchanged due to still-elevated inflation. This divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding FED policy and its potential market impact in 2026.
Mark Zandi: “Gradual and Cautious Cuts Are Coming”
Speaking to CNBC, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said he expects the FED to cut interest rates at least twice in 2026. According to Zandi, while the U.S. economy appears resilient on the surface, it is actually grappling with weak job growth and slowing economic momentum. As a result, additional monetary policy support may be necessary to sustain economic stability.
Zandi emphasized that the FED is unlikely to enter an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Instead, he expects a gradual and cautious approach to easing monetary policy.
“According to the data, prices remain elevated, but the FED is facing a difficult dilemma: it may be forced to lower interest rates to prevent further cooling in the labor market,”
— Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
Inflation Complicates Policy Decisions
Zandi noted that inflation continues to complicate the FED’s rate-cutting plans. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains around 3%, well above the FED’s 2% target. This limits policymakers’ flexibility and makes rapid rate cuts less likely, reinforcing the case for a gradual approach. According to Zandi, maintaining economic growth while preserving labor market stability will push the FED toward a cautious policy path.
Outlook
Based on Mark Zandi’s projections, the FED is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, with at least two reductions likely. These cuts are expected to be implemented gradually and carefully, balancing inflation risks with labor market conditions. Such developments could serve as an important guide for traditional financial markets as well as cryptocurrencies and other risk assets going into 2026.
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