Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around the $68,500 level as traders evaluate whether the Chinese New Year period could introduce short-term volatility into the market. In previous cycles, this seasonal window has occasionally aligned with temporary liquidity shifts in crypto assets, prompting renewed debate about its potential impact.
Seasonal Pattern or Market Myth?
There is a recurring narrative that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market sometimes experience weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year. The reasoning behind this theory suggests that Asia-based investors may reduce exposure before the holiday to increase cash holdings, creating short-term selling pressure. In certain past cycles, BTC did post pullbacks in the days leading up to the holiday period.
However, this pattern has not been consistent. In several instances, Bitcoin prices moved higher shortly after the celebrations concluded. Moreover, today’s crypto market structure is far more globally diversified than in earlier years. With capital flows distributed across multiple regions, it is increasingly unlikely that a single regional holiday alone can dictate overall price direction.
At the same time, retail investor behavior presents a contrasting dynamic. Recent data indicates that February balances for BTC and ETH are equal to or higher than December levels, suggesting that many individual investors are continuing to accumulate during dips rather than exiting positions. If this accumulation trend persists, it could help absorb any temporary seasonal selling pressure.
What the Technical Picture Reveals for Bitcoin
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day simple moving average near $83,900, confirming that the short-term trend is still tilted to the downside. Since peaking in the mid-$90,000 range in January, price action has formed a sequence of lower highs, reinforcing the technically weak structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 35, having rebounded from deeply oversold levels near 20 earlier this month. While this recovery signals that selling momentum has cooled, it does not yet confirm a definitive trend reversal.
Immediate support sits near $65,000, with a stronger demand zone between $60,000 and $62,000. On the upside, resistance is seen around $72,000, followed by a heavier supply area between $76,000 and $80,000. A break below $65,000 could open the door to further downside toward $60,000, whereas a sustained move above $72,000 would indicate that bullish momentum is regaining traction—regardless of seasonal narratives.
This content is not investment advice.
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