Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to maintain a strong correlation with the Nasdaq-100 index, but recent data suggests a shift in how the world’s largest cryptocurrency reacts to market movements. According to a recent report by Wintermute, Bitcoin is responding more sharply to Nasdaq declines than to its rallies — a sign that market sentiment is tilting toward fatigue rather than enthusiasm.
Bitcoin’s Correlation with Nasdaq Weakens in Sentiment
While Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq remains relatively high at around 0.8, the nature of that correlation has changed. When equities fall, Bitcoin tends to drop more aggressively, yet when the Nasdaq rebounds, Bitcoin’s reaction appears muted.
This “negative performance skew” pattern was last observed during the 2022 bear market — a period marked by investor exhaustion rather than strength.
Wintermute attributes this shift to two main factors. First, both institutional and retail investors have shifted capital away from cryptocurrencies toward mega-cap tech stocks. Second, overall crypto liquidity has weakened due to a slowdown in stablecoin issuance, lower ETF inflows, and reduced market depth. Together, these conditions make Bitcoin more vulnerable to downside moves when risk assets retreat.
Short-Term Outlook and Key Levels
After briefly pulling back, Bitcoin managed to hold above its key support levels, showing no major structural changes on the chart. In the short term, breaking out of a minor descending trend will be crucial.
If BTC manages to reclaim the $105,500 resistance level — previously rejected — a move toward the $106,700 region could follow, indicating renewed bullish momentum.
On-Chain Metrics Support Spot Demand
On-chain data, particularly the Coinbase Premium Index, points to strengthening spot buying activity. Bitcoin’s recent upward moves appear to be supported by organic demand rather than speculative leverage.
Coinbase remains dominated by buyers, while Binance has shown heavier selling pressure in recent weeks. However, recent signs of renewed buying on Binance suggest improving sentiment and potential accumulation at current levels.
*This content does not contain investment advice.
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