Orhan 
The 2024 US presidential elections could have significant impacts on the crypto markets. However, evaluations from Coin Center and various experts suggest that this impact is not just limited to price increases.
Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Approach
If Donald Trump is re-elected, some positive policies for the crypto sector are expected to emerge. Specifically, the potential removal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and increased incentives for Bitcoin mining are viewed positively for the market. Trump has even shown his support for the industry by accepting crypto donations for his campaign.
Three Visible Threats
Coin Center warns that the current regulatory environment in the US could hinder innovation. Three main threats are highlighted:
- Section 6050I and Tax Reporting: This regulation, requiring reporting of profits over $10,000 to the IRS, is seen as a major obstacle for crypto investors.
- Tornado Cash Sanctions: Sanctions against crypto mixers like Tornado Cash threaten the future of unregulated services.
- AML Policies: Stricter anti-money laundering policies could create issues regarding user privacy and access to services.
Long-Term Risks of Crypto Policies
Despite Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, the broader impact of these regulations is debated. Some analysts believe such policies could provide short-term gains for investors but could push innovation outside the US. If Kamala Harris is elected, it’s likely that Biden’s strict regulatory approach would continue, although there may be a more balanced path due to California’s tech background.
Van Valkenburgh argues that the sector’s sanctions have been insufficient in preventing criminal activities, suggesting that regulations need to be more user-friendly and effective. Moreover, investors are advised to remain cautious about potential regulatory changes and market fluctuations.
The 2024 elections present new opportunities and risks for the crypto market. While Trump’s policies may boost market values in the short term, a stricter regulatory framework could lead to negative consequences in the long term. In this process, it is crucial for investors and developers to closely monitor changes in the legal framework.
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