Citing two important indications, an expert argues that the bull market is still strong even if Bitcoin cannot recover its March all-time high and shows no evidence of a significant downturn.
Axel Adler, a researcher with CryptoQuant, looked into the Bubble vs. Crush Market Structure and the MVRV Z-score in an August 18 study to back up his assertion that the present price action of Bitcoin is moving in a positive direction.
Adler pointed out that Bitcoin is not now in a bubble phase as the Bubble vs. Crush Market Structure has decreased to a score of 1.02, which he considers as “the baseline.” He said that bubbles develop when the market capitalization of Bitcoin increases more quicker than its actual value. This is in contrast to the circumstances in March 2021, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,679 and the indicator indicated a bubble with a score of around 1.5.
Indicating “minimal overvaluation” Bitcoin’s 30-day Moving Average (DMA) MVRV Z-Score is now at 1.8, somewhat above its yearly average of 1.6. Adler noted that a rising score usually indicates that the item is overpriced and that a price adjustment could follow.
According to Adler, “as long as the metric does not reach extreme levels that could signal a significant risk of correction, the market can be considered bullish.” Both measures point to Bitcoin’s current notional value as not too high.
Since July 22, Bitcoin has traded within a 40% range, varying between a low of $49,842 and a high of $69,799. Right now, Bitcoin trades for $59,260.
Several traders have observed the protracted period of consolidation of Bitcoin. “We are in the boring phase,” said pseudonymous trader Ash Crypto. While another trader, Rekt Capital, said Bitcoin might be “on the cusp of reclaiming its Post-Halving ReAccumulation Range,” suggesting possible upward movement in the next months, this phase occurs both before and after the halving.
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