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Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, is maintaining its 2025 Bitcoin price target at $200,000, while expecting a short-term market reaction in the US presidential election. Bernstein analysts predict that a potential victory could send Bitcoin prices to $80-90K, given Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. While Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Democratic Party’s more cautious approach to crypto over the last four years, Harris’ short-term price target has been set at $50,000 if she wins.
The main drivers of Bitcoin include financial indiscipline in the US, record debt levels, and quantitative easing. This is increasing demand for hard assets, while the success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US is accelerating this trend. Bernstein analysts said, “Bitcoin is out of the bottle and it is difficult to reverse this course,” and added that they are maintaining their target of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
On the Polymarket platform, Trump’s advantage over Harris fell to 3% over the weekend after the Iowa polls. However, Trump still leads in Polymarket with a 57.9% chance, ahead of Harris’ 42.1% chance. On the Kalshi platform, Trump is ahead with a 54% chance, while Harris is ahead with a 46% chance. In national polls, Harris is ahead by 1%, within the margin of error.
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Bernstein analyst Chhugani said that the election results could cause short-term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and disagreed with the claims that Polymarket data was manipulated in favor of Trump. He also noted that Harris briefly had a 2% lead in Pennsylvania, but that this quickly turned in Trump’s 14% favor. In Polymarket, Trump is ahead in critical states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, while Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Bitcoin fell 7% from $73,500 on October 29 to $68,596.
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