Yahya 
According to a Sept. 25 Glassnode article, over the past six months the Bitcoin network has seen a clear drop in capital inflows while the market is in a protracted consolidation phase. Those who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days—short-term holders (STHs)—have seen a negative market gradient from this consolidation—which has persisted since the 2024 Bitcoin halving. Although it kept drifting down, the realized price gradient stayed positive concurrently.
Glassnode researchers imply that the drop in Bitcoin’s current price has been more severe than the degree of capital outflows reveal. They claimed that since the 2019–2020 period, when the second quarter of 2019 showed a significant increase, there has not been a phase of consolidation of this duration highlighted.
Further studies reveal some of the stagnation among younger buyers, particularly those who purchased Bitcoin for one week to three months. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio of these STH sub-cohorts exposes how financially strained many new investors have been from their unrealized losses since June 2024. Still, these losses are not as severe as those of the sell-off in mid-2021 or the COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020.
The paper emphasizes how younger investors’ cost basis can lead to a reduction in the spot price during market contraction, therefore indicating a net capital outflow from the Bitcoin ecosystem. Particularly, the cost basis of individuals who kept Bitcoin for one week to one month—the “fast trace”—has dropped below that of the one-month to three-month cohort—the “slow trace”. This suggests now net market outflows.
Glassnode discovers that new investors still show quite great confidence in spite of net capital outflow and price consolidation. Examining how STHs responded to changes in the market, the research showed that these investors—albeit with unrealized losses—have not overreacted by selling their assets. This is more confident than in past bearish patterns.
The report highlights in the end that Bitcoin’s recent comeback has kept it above the STH cost basis of $63,900, so inspiring future price upward hope. Should Bitcoin keep its price higher than the 200-day moving average of $63.9k, this surge may have technical relevance implying a possible market turn-around.
There is no financial advice in this post; readers should investigate on their own before deciding on investments.
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