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Markus Thielen, chief of research at 10x Research, said in an April 13 analyst note that bitcoin miners could liquidate $5 billion in BTC as a result of the halving.
“The overhang from this sale could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months—as it has done following past halvings,” he said in a press release. Thielen predicts that this will happen again, with crypto markets facing “a significant challenge in a six-month ‘summer’ lull.”
Bitcoin values remained in the $9,000 to $11,500 area for five months after the 2020 halving.
2024’s Bitcoin Halving
This year’s halving will occur around April 20, only five days away; therefore, markets may not see a significant upward trend until around October if history repeats itself.
Furthermore, miners like to store BTC, “leading to a supply-demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices” prior to the halving, he noted.
This has already occurred, with Bitcoin prices soaring 74% in 2024, reaching a record high of $73,734 on March 14 before dipping below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen also noted the disproportionate impact on altcoins, which have dropped considerably from their peak in 2021. Despite concerns about a post-halving cryptocurrency rally, Thielen cited historical data indicating that such a rally would normally begin six months later.
Focusing on individual mining operations, Thielen stated that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has collected inventory that will be progressively sold following the halving to avoid a significant loss in revenue. Marathon presently mines 28–30 BTC a day, and post-halving, this could contribute up to 133 days of additional supply to the market, with an average daily production of 14–15 BTC.
Thielen concluded that if all miners followed a similar strategy, the market may see up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin sold per day after the halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand mismatch that has powered the recent price increase.
“This is the final push for miners to squeeze out as much revenue as they can before their production takes a big hit. With revenues across the board decreasing overnight, the strategic response of each miner and how they adapt could well determine who comes out ahead and who gets left behind,” noted Matthew Kimmell, a digital asset analyst at CoinShares.
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