Yigit Taha OZTURK 
Bitcoin’s potential price range in 2025 depends on three major factors, according to the crypto mining firm Blockware Solutions: the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) plan, Federal Reserve (Fed) policies, and overall adoption rates.
2025 Bear Case: $150,000
In Blockware’s December 28 market report, it suggests Bitcoin’s price could increase by 58% to around $150,000 in a bear case scenario. This outcome might occur if Donald Trump does not implement the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan or if the Fed reverses its course on interest rate cuts.
Additionally, long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—selling their assets aggressively could trigger this scenario.
2025 Base Case: $225,000
The report forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $225,000 under a base case scenario, where the U.S. government converts its Bitcoin holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the Fed continues its expected rate cuts, and corporate adoption proceeds at its current pace.
2025 Bull Case: $400,000
Blockware outlines a bull case where Bitcoin could soar to $400,000, but three favorable conditions must align:
- The Fed adopts a more dovish policy stance.
- Corporate adoption accelerates, with companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
- The U.S. government not only converts its Bitcoin holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve but also accumulates more Bitcoin.
U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Policy Under Debate
During Microsoft’s annual shareholder meeting on December 10, a proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet was rejected, dampening expectations for accelerated corporate adoption.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital Research Head Alex Thorn stated that the U.S. government is unlikely to purchase Bitcoin in 2025. Instead, Thorn predicts the government will rely on its existing Bitcoin holdings, while discussions about a Bitcoin reserve policy will continue.
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