Ramazan Eles 
Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, rising 35% in just three weeks and nearing its late 2021 peak of $52,000. Could it climb even higher, even reaching its all-time high of $70,000 by April’s end? While a bullish consensus exists, a new player in the game, decentralized options marketplace Lyra, paints a slightly different picture.
Based on their data, there’s a 20% chance, or one in five, that Bitcoin will indeed cross the $70,000 mark by April 26th. This might seem surprising, considering the recent positive momentum fueled by factors like US spot ETF inflows, accommodative fiscal policy, and a receding global recession risk.
But remember, options tell a story. These derivatives allow traders to bet on future price movements, and Lyra’s latest listings – expiring on April 26th – reveal interesting insights. While there’s some “upside action” with traders buying call options for $64,000 and $70,000 strike prices, the overall picture leans towards caution.
Here’s the reasons (Bitcoin)
-
Low Probability: Despite the recent rally, Lyra’s data suggests a relatively low chance of reaching $70,000 by April end. This might signify a more measured approach from sophisticated traders compared to the broader bullish sentiment.
-
Reward Halving Factor: Bitcoin’s halving event, where the pace of new coin creation gets cut in half, is scheduled for mid-April. Some believe this could drive prices up due to limited supply. However, Lyra’s options market doesn’t seem overly hyped about this event’s immediate impact.
So, while Bitcoin hitting $70,000 by April end isn’t impossible, it appears to be a long shot based on Lyra’s options data. Remember, the crypto market is inherently volatile, and any predictions come with inherent risks.
Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.