Emre Yumlu 
The $16.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry today could lead to significant price fluctuations in either direction. What are the possible scenarios, and how might the market react?
Bitcoin Investors Prepare for Record-Breaking Options Expiry
Bitcoin investors are reassessing their positions ahead of the $16.5 billion options expiry on March 28. However, BTC’s drop below $90,000 has invalidated many bullish positions, limiting its market impact.
This shift allows bears to avoid a potential $3 billion loss, which could significantly impact market dynamics. Currently, call (buy) options total $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options stand at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of call options are set above $92,000, meaning BTC would need a 6.4% increase to activate them—an unlikely scenario under current conditions.
Bulls Hope for Bitcoin’s Market Decoupling
Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak performance to global trade wars and U.S. spending cuts, increasing recession risks. Additionally, the slowdown in the AI sector has led to a 7% drop in the S&P 500.
Despite this, Bitcoin investors remain hopeful for an independent rally, driven by central bank monetary expansion and corporate Bitcoin adoption.
As the options expiry approaches, both bulls and bears will attempt to influence Bitcoin’s price movement. However, for bulls to push BTC past $92,000, strong market support is required. Deribit dominates the options market with a 74% share, followed by CME (8.5%) and Binance (8%).
Bulls Gain Advantage if Bitcoin Breaks $90,000
Current market conditions favor bullish investors heading into the options expiry. For example, if BTC stays at $86,500 by 8:00 am UTC on March 28, only $2 billion worth of put options will be in play. This situation incentivizes bears to push Bitcoin below $84,000, as it would increase put option value to $2.6 billion.
Conversely, if bulls drive BTC above $90,000, it could establish a strong bullish trend for April, especially if spot Bitcoin ETF inflows gain momentum.
Possible Scenarios Based on Price Levels:
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$81,000 – $85,000: $2.7B calls vs. $2.6B puts → Bulls lead by $100M
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$85,000 – $88,000: $3.3B calls vs. $2B puts → Bulls lead by $1.3B
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$88,000 – $90,000: $3.4B calls vs. $1.8B puts → Bulls lead by $1.6B
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$90,000 – $92,000: $4.4B calls vs. $1.4B puts → Bulls lead by $3B
To minimize losses, bears must push BTC below $84,000 by March 28, requiring a 3% decline.
On the other hand, if bulls successfully push BTC past $90,000, market momentum could shift in their favor, especially with increasing Bitcoin ETF investments playing a crucial role.
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