Orhan 
Bitcoin, after surpassing the $99,000 mark last Friday and reaching an all-time high, experienced a sharp pullback of over 3% within 24 hours. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out that key factors behind this pullback include changes in the U.S. Treasury market and upcoming monthly options expirations.
According to Kendrick, the decline in long-term interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds and the diminishing term premium are negatively affecting Bitcoin’s appeal in the short term. The term premium refers to the additional return investors demand for holding long-term bonds. Kendrick mentioned that Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against instability in the traditional financial system, and the drop in the term premium is creating pressure on Bitcoin.
“One of Bitcoin’s main use cases is as a hedge against traditional financial problems. Therefore, the decline in the term premium could weaken Bitcoin, at least in the short term.”
Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong
Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, maintaining a year-end target of $125,000, with the possibility of reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Options Expirations Are Pressuring Bitcoin
Another factor affecting Bitcoin’s short-term price movements is the monthly options expirations that are scheduled for Friday. According to Deribit data, there are open positions for a total of 18,000 BTC in the price range of $85,000 to $100,000. Kendrick noted that this could limit price movements, and prices might stabilize as the expirations approach.
However, Kendrick emphasized that institutional demand remains strong, citing that since the U.S. elections, spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased around 77,000 BTC, and MicroStrategy has acquired 134,000 BTC.
“MicroStrategy’s purchases are continuing without slowing down, and it’s unlikely they will sell. This could establish a floor for Bitcoin in the short term, in the range of $85,000 to $88,700.”
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