Basri Caneri 
The US government’s plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve could turn from an advantage for the crypto sector into a political weapon. “The Bitcoin reserve could become a tool of political manipulation,” BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Fund chief investment officer Arthur Hayes warned in a blog post on February 6.
Hayes argued that the US government’s purchase of Bitcoin has been welcomed by many crypto supporters, but that the reserve could be used politically in the future.
“1 million Bitcoins will be sitting there. It can be sold with just a signature. Therefore, the Bitcoin reserve could turn from a financial asset into a political weapon.”
Bitcoin Reserve Could Become “Political Punishment” for Democrats
If the Trump administration fails to control inflation, stop wars or find a solution to the food crisis by 2026, the Democrats will regain power, Hayes said.
In this case, by winning the 2028 elections:
- Bitcoin can sell its reserves,
- It could penalize crypto investors,
- It could roll back policies that support crypto.
There are those who oppose this scenario. For example:
- VanEck suggests that a Bitcoin reserve could reduce the US national debt by 35% by 2049.
- Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, claims that the reserve would strengthen the US dollar and make the country the leader of the digital economy.
Trump Administration Still Undecided on Bitcoin Reserve
Trump’s announced sovereign wealth fund has raised the possibility of the US government creating a Bitcoin reserve. US Senator Cynthia Lummis said the move was a “₿big deal.”
However, it remains unclear whether this reserve will actually be implemented. Forecasting platforms Polymarket and Kalshi calculated the probability of a Bitcoin reserve being created at 46% and 58% respectively.
On the other hand, Arthur Hayes has also spoken out against spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying they could “completely destroy” Bitcoin. According to Hayes, ETFs could lock Bitcoin in vaults, bringing mining activity to a halt and thus causing the network to collapse.
The Trump administration has not yet made it clear how it will proceed with the Bitcoin reserve, but this decision will be one of the critical steps that will determine the future of the US crypto sector.
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