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Tyr Capital’s chief investment officer believes Bitcoin has a better chance of closing September above $60,000 than below.
Despite Bitcoin’s historically poor performance in September, some traders are confident that this year could defy the trend. Macro factors, including potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, could play a role in shaking up the bearish sentiment.
“Although September is historically a negative month for BTC, the combination of a Fed rate cut and a strong U.S. economy could surprise the bears,” said Ed Hindi, Tyr Capital’s chief investment officer, in an interview.
Hindi expressed optimism, saying, “We believe the chances of Bitcoin closing above $60,000 are higher than it settling below that mark.”
As of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $56,633, having failed to break above $60,000 since August 30, according to CoinMarketCap. While futures traders are not expecting an immediate return to $60,000, reaching that level would wipe out over $584 million in short positions, based on data from CoinGlass.
September: Historically Bitcoin’s Worst Month
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades also commented on September’s reputation as a tough month for Bitcoin, but added that its average return of -4% isn’t as bad as commonly perceived, especially given Bitcoin’s notorious volatility.
CoinGlass data highlights that September is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, with the asset posting an average monthly loss of 4.49% over the past 11 years. Daan Crypto Trades explained that he’s closely monitoring Bitcoin’s longer-term price trends for signs of a bullish shift. “I’m mainly looking for a ‘higher high and higher low,’ which would indicate buyers taking control of the market,” he said. “For now, I’d want to see BTC trading above $65,000 to demonstrate real strength,” he added.
This follows comments from crypto analyst Matthew Hyland, who also emphasized the importance of a bullish market structure. In a video on August 30, Hyland pointed out the need for Bitcoin to rebound after dropping below $58,000, saying, “We need to see a bounce and a higher high to confirm the uptrend we’ve been in since August.”
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