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Bitcoin fell 10% in January, but analysts state that in previous post-halving years, a drop of between 25-30% was observed.
Analysts note that significant corrections in the first month of the year after Bitcoin’s blockchain halving have historically been a common occurrence.
Crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze told his 123,000 X followers on January 12:
“Bitcoin dropping in January has historically been a widespread occurrence in post-halving years. We all know what happened after the 2017 and 2021 drops.”
- Bitcoin fell from its peak of $102,300 on January 7 to below $92,000 and is now showing a slight recovery around $94,000.
- In January 2021, the year after the most recent halving, Bitcoin dropped more than 25%, falling from over $40,000 to above $30,000, then surged by 130% in November to reach a new all-time high of $69,000.
- In January 2017, the year after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin dropped by 30%, falling from $1,130 to $784. It then surged 2,400% that year, reaching $20,000 by December.
Bitcoin Post-Halving Year January Declines
YouTuber and analyst Crypto Rover observed that Bitcoin consistently dropped in the first half of each month throughout the past year.
“This is just a small dip compared to previous declines,” he said. “Bitcoin has not yet reached the ultimate hype/pump phase,” posted the finance analysis account Stockmoney Lizards on X on January 12. “This cycle has more fuel in the next 12 months.”
Bitcoin Monthly Chart With RSI Color Coding
The analyst acknowledged that some things are a bit different in each cycle but added, “With mass adoption, pro-crypto governments worldwide, ETFs, etc., I think this strengthens our hypothesis.”
A 130% move similar to that in the peak year of the previous cycle could push BTC prices from current levels to over $200,000 by the end of 2025.
On the other hand, a pullback of the magnitude seen in January in the last two cycles could send prices below $70,000.
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