Deniz 
Bitcoin has had a tremendous run in 2024, surpassing expectations and recapturing the interest of investors around the world. With a startling 55% growth in value since the start of the year and an astonishing 320% climb since 2023, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is demonstrating its endurance and proving doubters wrong once more.
As April progresses, a huge event lurks on the horizon that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, but it may not be sufficient to propel it to a new all-time high this month. Here’s why investors should focus on the long term rather than just what occurs in April.
Harnessing the Impact of Bitcoin Halving: Insights and Expectations
Bitcoin’s fourth halving is set to take place around April 20. Halvings, which occur about every four years, underpin Bitcoin’s robust monetary policy by reducing the inflation rate by half. This halving will reduce the cryptocurrency’s inflation rate from 1.75% to approximately 0.8%. Over time, it’s clear that halvings can have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. With a decrease in its production rate, the halvings mean that even if demand remains constant, the price must rise to compensate for the reduced supply. However, on a shorter time scale, halvings have historically had little impact.
Deciphering Bitcoin’s Halving Trends: Lessons from Past Performance
Examining previous halving occasions gives useful information about Bitcoin’s price performance throughout these periods. BTC saw a tiny 9.5% growth in May 2020, following its most recent halving. In July 2016, BTC declined 7%. Going back four years, Bitcoin increased by only 12% in November 2012, when it underwent its first halving.
These numbers demonstrate the volatility of Bitcoin’s performance during halving months, with an average return of around 4.6%. When this average is applied to current prices, it forecasts a probable price of roughly $72,700 by the end of April, falling short of the record high reached in mid-March, when it surpassed $73,000.
Looking to the Future
Despite the possibility of short-term volatility, the overall impact of Bitcoin’s halving occurrences emphasizes its long-term promise. Bitcoin has an average return of 125% over the course of a halving. Even better, in the years since the halving, Bitcoin’s price has increased by more than 400% on average. Historically, Bitcoin has set new all-time highs in the years after its halving.
Zooming out, it’s clear how lowering its inflation rate increases its scarcity and long-term value proposition. While the route to another record-breaking price may take some time, the basic dynamics established by halving occurrences equip Bitcoin for long-term success.As each halving builds on the previous one, growing adoption by retail and institutional investors should put upward pressure on the world’s leading cryptocurrency.