Saltık Bitfinex analysts project a significant shift in the supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) following the recent mining reward halving. With the per-block reward cut in half, the daily supply of new BTC could decrease to as low as $30 million, creating a potential demand-supply gap five times larger than the average daily inflows into U.S. spot-based ETFs.
According to Bitfinex’s estimates, the reduction in daily issuance post-halving could lead to a supply of approximately $40-$50 million initially, possibly dropping to $30 million per day over time. This contrasts with the average daily net inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which currently stand at over $150 million, despite recent moderation and net negative flows.
The impact of the supply squeeze is already evident, with the total number of new coins added to the daily supply dropping significantly since the halving. Additionally, the emergence of spot-based ETFs in the U.S. has provided investors with alternative exposure to cryptocurrency without direct ownership.
Moreover, Bitfinex notes that miner selling could slow down as miners depleted their coin inventory before the halving to fund equipment upgrades. This reduction in selling pressure, coupled with increasing investor preference for direct custody of coins, is expected to further tighten the supply side of the market.
Overall, Bitfinex’s analysis suggests a potential imbalance between Bitcoin supply and demand, driven by the halving’s impact on issuance and changing investor behaviors. This shift could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market moving forward.
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