Yeliz Akmaca 
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 2025 meeting (FOMC) were published today. The documents reveal a clear divide over interest rate cuts. A group of participants indicated they would be open to a rate cut at the July meeting if data evolves as expected. On the other hand, some members emphasized that a rate cut in 2025 may not be the most appropriate course. Additionally, some participants believe that the current interest rate may not be significantly above the neutral level.
According to the documents, all participants agreed that maintaining the current 4.25–4.50% target range was appropriate. However, opinions differed on when a cut should occur. A few members are ready to consider a rate cut at the July meeting. Meanwhile, some officials highlighted inflation risks and economic resilience as reasons why a cut this year may not be suitable.
Committee members will base their decisions on incoming inflation data. Inflation driven by Trump tariffs is seen by many as temporary or modest. The Fed also noted that several members remain open to a potential rate cut in upcoming meetings.
Neutral Rate Still in Focus
Another key highlight from the minutes: some members said the current federal funds rate might not be significantly above the neutral level. This suggests the policy stance may not be restrictive and could signal a possible early cut.
This divide will significantly shape the path toward the July 29–30 Fed meeting. If data comes in line with expectations, one group may support a cut while others may hold back. Inflation pressure and labor market performance will be decisive.
In conclusion, the minutes signal an open door to a rate cut in July, but also a strong bloc resisting a move this year. This confirms the Fed’s cautious, data-driven approach.
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