Haciyev Reşit 
After a weekend of stagnation in the crypto markets, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. economic data this week. The trajectory of the crypto market, especially Bitcoin’s price movements, could be directly influenced by key indicators such as consumer confidence, unemployment claims, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
Following the weekend lull in crypto markets, the hype around Ethereum and the market fluctuations triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech are expected to amplify the impact of this week’s U.S. economic data.
Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
Release Date: Tuesday
Expectations: The August Consumer Confidence Index is forecasted to decline from July’s 97.2 to 96.5. Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain at 58.6.
These figures stand out as some of the lowest in the past century. Weak consumer confidence may reduce demand for risky assets, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins.
However, low confidence data could increase the likelihood of Fed easing, providing medium-term support for crypto markets.
Initial Jobless Claims
Release Date: Thursday
Previous: 235,000
Forecast: 230,000
The U.S. labor market has become one of the most critical indicators for crypto. Claims coming in below expectations could signal a resilient labor market, potentially reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut and limiting short-term gains for Bitcoin.
Conversely, a rise in ongoing jobless claims would indicate deepening labor market issues, heightening economic slowdown concerns and potentially triggering market volatility in crypto.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Release Date: Friday
Headline Expectation: 2.6%
Core PCE Expectation: 2.9% (up from July’s 2.8%)
An increase in Core PCE indicates that inflation remains sticky, which could delay Fed rate cuts and exert short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
However, persistently high inflation may reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against monetary devaluation, boosting institutional demand over the long term.
Current Market Status
Bitcoin (BTC): Trading around $111,576, down more than 3% in the past 24 hours.
Ethereum (ETH): After testing new highs over the weekend, ETH is currently trading at $4,711.
Overall Assessment
This week’s U.S. economic data will directly influence crypto investors’ risk appetite. Key points include:
- Low Consumer Confidence: May suppress risky assets but could increase the likelihood of Fed easing.
- Jobless Claims: Provide signals on labor market health.
- High PCE: Could exert short-term pressure, while reinforcing Bitcoin’s perception as a long-term hedge against inflation.
For crypto investors, this week stands out as a period where the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and price movements is expected to be particularly strong.
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