Haciyev Reşit 
After reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22, gold went through a four-month consolidation and a $380 correction wave before breaking out of its triangle pattern and climbing to $3,565. So, what triggered this rally?
Factors Driving the Rally
- Safe-haven demand: Global central banks made strong gold purchases amid political turmoil.
- SPDR Gold Trust asset increase: Holdings rose 1.32%, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
- Political pressure on the Fed: Concerns over the Fed’s independence reduced investor confidence in the Dollar and U.S. Treasuries, boosting demand for gold.
- Rate cut expectations: Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in mid-September, supporting gold demand.
Technical Analysis: Where Is Gold Headed?
Gold has reached the triangle breakout target of $3,545. A pullback toward support zones is likely before any new upward extension.
- Short-term resistances:
- If bulls succeed above the $3,542–$3,547 range, the next resistance is $3,555, followed by $3,573–$3,578.
- Short-term supports:
- Breaks below $3,530–$3,525 may trigger declines to $3,515–$3,508, then $3,498–$3,488.
- Deeper pullback levels:
- If selling intensifies, the 4-hour 50 EMA levels at $3,440 and $3,415 will be key levels to watch.
Currently, gold is consolidating sideways in a narrow range, trading below $3,542 and above $3,530, near the 4-hour 5 EMA.
Conclusion
Gold has broken out of its triangle formation thanks to strong safe-haven demand and Fed-related uncertainties. Technically, the short-term support and resistance levels stand out as key points for investors to monitor.
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