JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $165,000 by Year-End

JPMorgan analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to gold, projecting it could reach $165,000 by the end of 2025. The “value-drag trade” led by retail investors is creating significant upside potential in the cryptocurrency market. 

Bitcoin vs Gold: Value Gap Analysis 

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin is trading below its value relative to gold when adjusted for volatility. Analysts mark a Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio below 2.0 as an indicator, currently showing that Bitcoin consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. 

This implies that Bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to grow approximately 42% to match the roughly $6 trillion invested in gold. Theoretically, this supports a BTC price of $165,000. 

Analysts also note that BTC has dropped from an overvalued $36,000 at the end of 2024 to an undervalued $46,000 relative to gold-adjusted volatility levels. 

Role of Retail Investors and ETFs 

Interest in Bitcoin and gold ETFs by retail investors has driven the value-drag trade since late 2024. Investors, particularly in emerging markets, are turning to alternative stores of value due to government deficits, inflation, and geopolitical risks. 

• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows rose at the start of 2025. 
• In August, BTC ETF inflows slowed, while gold ETF inflows accelerated. 
• Institutional investors using CME futures lagged behind ETF inflows. 
• This indicates retail investor trends are stronger in the value-drag trade. 

Market Outlook and Price Expectation 

Although gold prices have risen in recent weeks, analysts find Bitcoin relatively more attractive. In August, JPMorgan analysts had forecasted a $126,000 year-end target, updating it to $165,000 considering gold movements. 

JPMorgan’s forecast aligns with several other firms and analysts, some of whom project BTC could reach $200,000 by year-end. Bitcoin is currently trading around $119,500. 

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