Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has been hitting peak after peak in recent weeks, thrilling investors. Market data suggests this surge isn’t just fleeting enthusiasm but is grounded in solid fundamentals. On-chain analyses and derivative market signals indicate the Uptober rally may have more room to run. So, what’s driving this trend?
Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Phenomenon: Historically Strong Performance
October has long been dubbed “Uptober” in the crypto community, as historical data shows this month often brings significant price surges. This year is no exception; Bitcoin’s momentum has not only fueled itself but also sparked capital flow toward older altcoins. Historical trends confirm this month as one of the brightest periods for bull markets.
Investor Behavior: Low Profit-Taking for Bitcoin
According to recent analyses, Bitcoin holders earned a total of $30 billion in profits over the past 30 days. This figure is well below July’s $63 billion peak and significantly lower than the $78–99 billion seen in March and December 2024. Long-term holders’ (LTH) average realized profit margin stands at 129%, far below the 300% threshold that typically signals market exhaustion. This suggests investors remain bullish and aren’t rushing to sell.
Support Signals from Derivatives Markets
Movements in the options market further bolster the optimistic outlook. According to researcher Adam Chu, call options between $120,000 and $140,000 are among the most actively traded contracts, with the $120,000 level being a key concentration point. Low gamma levels among market makers mean minor price swings aren’t causing major disruptions. The $110,000 level forms a strong support line, while new highs could trigger accelerated buying.
Expert Opinions: Positive Q4 Outlook
Adam Chu emphasizes that institutional players are also optimistic about this period: “I predict market conditions will remain positive throughout October. Many experienced institutional investors see the final quarter as promising.” Bitcoin’s rally is supported by long-term holders’ restraint and bullish positions from derivatives professionals. Even with short-term pullbacks, the overall trend appears upward.
These insights suggest Bitcoin’s October rally still has breathing room. Cautious optimism may be the key strategy for investors.
This content is not investment advice.
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