Emre Yumlu 
October has historically been a bullish month for cryptocurrencies, often referred to as “Uptober” due to its strong performance over the years. However, 2025’s Uptober hasn’t lived up to expectations so far. After a promising start fueled by ETF inflows, the market was hit by a sudden liquidity shock and multi-billion-dollar liquidations that quickly erased early gains.
Rally Interrupted
In early October, Bitcoin surged past the $114,000–$117,000 resistance range to reach a new all-time high above $126,000. According to Glassnode, the rally was driven by strong spot ETF inflows and renewed buying activity from mid-sized investors.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best months. Data shows the cryptocurrency has averaged over 46% returns in October since 2013. Yet this year, the trend took an unexpected turn. On October 11, the market witnessed the largest single-day liquidation event in history — around $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, sending BTC tumbling to nearly $102,000 before a mild recovery.
Liquidity and Leverage Pressure
Analysts note that the sell-off wasn’t caused by selling pressure alone. A lack of market depth made the price drop much sharper. A mid-October report from Kaiko highlighted how “panic-driven trading exposed a severe liquidity gap across BTC order books,” with some exchanges appearing nearly empty for several minutes during the crash.
K33 Research, however, views the liquidation as a reset rather than a collapse. Analysts there argue that excessive leverage has now been cleared out, creating a healthier market structure. They suggest that the coming weeks could provide “a favorable environment for capital deployment” as funding rates and derivatives normalize.
Can Uptober Still Recover?
Before the crash, Glassnode reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted over $2.2 billion in inflows, signaling that institutional appetite remains strong.
In the end, this year’s Uptober illustrates two key realities: institutional flows can lift the market significantly, but a single liquidity shock can wipe out progress in hours. Whether October finishes strong will depend on how quickly market makers and institutional investors rebuild liquidity depth. If they do, Uptober might still close on a bullish note.
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