Yeliz Akmaca 
The United States government is experiencing one of the longest shutdowns in history due to a budget deadlock between Republican and Democratic lawmakers. Approximately 1.4 million federal employees are either furloughed or working without pay. Polymarket prediction markets indicate that the shutdown could continue until mid- or late November, with most investors expecting a resolution after November 16.
Reasons Behind the Shutdown
The shutdown started after Congress failed to pass a budget law funding public services following the expiration of the previous federal budget on October 1. Although Republicans control both chambers of Congress, they lacked the 60 votes needed in the Senate to pass the spending bill. Democrats demand the extension of health insurance subsidies and the reversal of Medicaid cuts.
A temporary budget bill passed the House but stalled in the Senate. President Trump’s administration avoided giving concrete concessions, while Democrats remain committed to improving healthcare access. This deadlock has resulted in the suspension of many government services and unpaid federal workers.
Impacts of the Government Shutdown
Not all government operations have stopped. Border protection, hospital-based health services, and essential law enforcement continue. However, unpaid air traffic controllers have caused nationwide flight cancellations and delays. SNAP food assistance programs and some federally funded projects have been temporarily disrupted. Economists estimate that the shutdown is causing around $15 billion in economic losses per week.
Polymarket Data and Probabilities
Have you ever wondered how prediction markets can forecast political events with surprising accuracy? Polymarket is gaining attention with its latest insights on the US government shutdown. Investors on the platform currently estimate a 59% chance that the shutdown will continue past November 16, indicating that most expect the deadlock to last several more weeks.
Meanwhile, Polymarket predicts a 31% probability of a resolution between November 12–15 and only a 9% probability for November 8–11. This shows that a small minority anticipates a rapid agreement, while the majority expects a later resolution. According to the data:
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November 4–7: 20%
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November 8–11: 9%
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November 12–15: 31%
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After November 16: 59%
These figures highlight investor expectations and the likely timeline for the shutdown.
What’s Next and Possible Solutions
To end the shutdown, both parties in the Senate must reach a compromise. Some moderate Democrats and Republicans hope to find an agreement before Thanksgiving. Polymarket data suggests a 59% chance the shutdown extends beyond November 16. This ongoing impasse creates uncertainty for the economy, financial markets, and investor behavior.
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