Yeliz Akmaca 
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has identified a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and USDt over the past two years. According to the analysis, when USDt exits exchanges, BTC prices tend to rise. This pattern becomes more noticeable during periods when investors take profits.
Glassnode’s data compares net USDt outflows with Bitcoin price increases starting from December 2023. For example, in October 2025, BTC reached $126,000 while net USDt outflows exceeded $220 million. This movement signals short-term profit-taking among traders.
Data from Whale Alert also supports this trend. During Bitcoin bull runs, USDt is typically minted, while it is burned during corrections. These two assets rank first and third by market capitalization, around $1.8 trillion and $184 billion respectively.
Revisiting this cycle’s USDT netflow to exchanges, we find a strong negative correlation with BTC’s mid-term performance.
During euphoric phases, USDT typically flows out at –$100M to –$200M/day as investors lock in profits.
At the $126K peak, net outflows reached >$220M… pic.twitter.com/AOsHf8dQ2p— glassnode (@glassnode) November 26, 2025
Stablecoin and Bitcoin Adoption Supported by U.S. Regulations
In July 2025, the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act, establishing a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed USDt will comply with the law. Additionally, the platform plans to launch a GENIUS-compliant dollar-pegged stablecoin called USAT.
The U.S. government and several states have also considered stockpiling Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. In March, former President Trump signed an executive order to create a digital asset reserve. However, reports suggest this plan has not yet been fully implemented.
Investor Behavior and Market Strategies
Net USDt outflows reflect investor profit-taking behavior. Moreover, increased stablecoin supply during BTC bull trends supports market liquidity. These patterns provide critical insights for predicting short- and medium-term price movements.
Therefore, investors can monitor USDt flows to anticipate Bitcoin price direction. Analysts emphasize that combining liquidity and sentiment data improves risk management and strategic decision-making.
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