Yeliz Akmaca 
The first weekend of 2026 marked a historic turning point in global politics. In a swift military operation, U.S. forces launched a large-scale strike in Caracas against the Venezuelan government, citing long-standing drug trafficking allegations. The operation resulted in the successful arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
In his first televised address following the raid, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would now oversee Venezuela’s oil industry. These reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, are valued at more than $17 trillion at current market prices.
Congress Sidestepped: Removal Debates Ignite
Political tensions in Washington reached a breaking point after Trump admitted the operation was kept hidden from Congress to prevent leaks. Senate Leader Chuck Schumer condemned the move as “reckless,” arguing that the administration had previously denied any plans for military action or regime change.
Prediction Markets: A Surprising Shift
Despite the political backlash and talks of removal from office, prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi show an unexpected trend:
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Lower Removal Odds: The probability of Trump being removed by December 31, 2026, actually dropped by 3% on Polymarket following the attacks.
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Long-term Outlook: Betting odds for 2027 and 2028 also saw a slight decline, suggesting that the successful military outcome may have bolstered his standing among bettors.
Trump-Linked Crypto Assets Explode
The geopolitical shockwaves sent investors flocking to digital assets associated with the U.S. President. The crypto market responded with significant gains:
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Bitcoin (BTC): Surged past the $91,000 mark for the first time since mid-December.
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World Liberty Financial (WLFI): The Trump-backed project skyrocketed over 16% daily, hitting $0.18.
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TRUMP (MAGA) Token: Gained 7.5% to reach $5.40, reclaiming its spot among the top 100 altcoins.
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