Yeliz Akmaca 
As crypto markets head into the week of February 15, 2026, global investors are bracing for an intense concentration of macro data. Minutes from the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation report, and a pending U.S. tariff ruling are all landing on the same calendar. Rate-cut expectations are being repriced, while investors closely monitor both inflation direction and signals from the trade front.
Some assets remain calm, others shift direction on a single headline. This week’s numbers could push the expected rate path further out than many anticipate.
Why Crypto Still Feels Cautious
Why can’t cryptocurrencies gain upside momentum? The answer isn’t found only in charts or whale activity. This week’s incoming data wave is reshaping macro expectations and once again putting the long-discussed rally narrative to the test. Even a small deviation in the PCE print could shelve the rate-cut timeline. That’s why understanding why markets may be forced to accept a “higher for longer” scenario is becoming increasingly critical.
Banks See Sticky Inflation
Major banks still don’t see a comforting picture in core PCE. Goldman Sachs points to core PCE tracking near 3% year over year — a level that keeps distance from the Fed’s 2% target.
Bank of America echoes that view, flagging near-term inflation stickiness. The shared takeaway is clear: without convincing cooling, policymakers are unlikely to move quickly. That keeps the risk of delayed rate cuts firmly on the table.
Why Rate-Cut Hopes Are Slipping
It’s not just inflation making markets uneasy — the legal front is tense as well. A true data deluge lies ahead. The PCE price index and Fed minutes will offer clues on disinflation momentum, while the Supreme Court of the United States is expected to deliver a key ruling tied to Trump-era tariffs.
That case adds another layer of uncertainty to trade policy. If the Court narrows presidential authority, pressure on import costs could ease over time — though any inflation impact would likely take longer to surface.
The Number Markets Are Stuck On
Persistently elevated core PCE reinforces the “higher for longer” narrative. Financial conditions have become increasingly sensitive to every incremental data point. On the trade side, the future of tariffs remains pivotal, especially for sectors already operating under cost pressure.
Some economists push back on claims that rolling back emergency tariffs would trigger economic disaster. Instead, many argue that businesses are already grappling with high input costs — and that uncertainty itself has become a separate burden.
With the macro calendar packed, crypto markets remain fragile. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was fluctuating around the $69,000 level, with volatility staying elevated. Risk sentiment from traditional markets continues to spill directly into digital assets.
If rate-cut expectations slide further, pressure on risk assets could intensify in the short term. That’s why investors are watching Fed minutes and PCE not just for bonds and equities — but for crypto direction as well.
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