Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow $62,000–$71,000 range since February 6, showing little sign of a decisive breakout. Despite the sideways price action, derivatives markets tell a different story: leverage is increasing. Many traders are expanding long positions, positioning themselves for a potential upside move even as broader crypto market risks remain.
Rising retail participation is particularly notable. Historically, spikes in speculative activity and leverage accumulation have often preceded periods of heightened volatility. While optimism is returning, the growing use of borrowed capital raises the stakes for both upward and downward moves.
Bitcoin Futures Basis and Funding Rates Signal Growing Risk Appetite
Market data shows that the annualized three-month futures basis on major centralized exchanges has widened from roughly 1.5% to 4% since February 13. The futures basis measures the premium of derivatives contracts over the spot price. When futures trade above spot, it reflects traders’ willingness to pay extra for long exposure—an indicator that speculative demand is strengthening.
At the same time, aggregated funding rates have climbed, suggesting that long-position holders are becoming increasingly dominant. Together, these metrics point to a market gradually shifting back into risk-on mode after weeks of uncertainty.
Retail investors appear resilient as well. Reports indicate that many users have been “buying the dip,” with February balances matching or exceeding those recorded in December. This behavior reinforces the narrative that market participants view current levels as an accumulation zone rather than a distribution phase.
Options Market Shows Cautious Optimism
In the options market, sentiment appears more measured. The 25 Delta skew—a gauge of demand for protective puts versus calls—has improved from -10 to -4 since February 13. This shift suggests reduced demand for downside hedging and a moderation of bearish expectations. However, it does not yet signal extreme bullish positioning.
Some analysts anticipate the possibility of a leverage-driven rally, potentially amplified by short squeezes if broader risk assets remain stable. Still, concerns remain that current optimism is not fully supported by sufficient trading volume, leaving the market vulnerable.
A Delicate Turning Point
Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,600, down approximately 2.5% over the past 24 hours. The market structure suggests two possible paths: a short-term bottom followed by renewed momentum, or an over-leveraged shakeout that forces widespread liquidations.
With leverage rising and conviction building, the coming sessions may prove decisive. Volume, liquidity conditions, and forced liquidations will likely determine whether Bitcoin’s next major move is a sustainable recovery or a final capitulation event.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.