Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin dropped to $64,290 in the last 12 hours and is currently holding around $65,400. Interestingly, despite the price decline, Polymarket predictions are still pointing toward $75,000. Actually, this creates a contradiction: charts and on-chain data indicate weak price momentum, yet the prediction market continues to heavily position for a bullish scenario. In other words, market expectations seem to move in the opposite direction of falling prices.
High Bets, But Real Confidence Declines
The most popular February scenario remains above $75,000. On Polymarket, over $88 million has been wagered on this position. Yet, the likelihood has dropped below 50%. People are investing, but confidence appears slightly shaken.
Looking at February predictions on Polymarket, a massive $91 million volume is pricing a “below $60,000” outcome at 30%. This is quite significant. While the end-of-February $75,000 expectation remains popular, the probability dropping below 50% is notable. Some investors give the 2026 year-end $150,000 target a 12% chance, while a significant group positions for the short-term under $60,000 scenario. This clearly illustrates the market’s expectation gap: one side anticipates a rally, while the other lies in wait for a deeper correction.
Whale Activity: Who’s Doing What?
The whale front is also confusing; no one seems certain what to do.
- Major whales holding around 100,000 BTC added roughly 13,000 BTC—a cautious accumulation signal.
- Medium-sized whales holding around 10,000 BTC sold about 10,000 BTC during the same period.
- Long-term investors reduced selling pressure by 67%; actually, strong buying support has still not formed. This keeps Bitcoin hovering in the $64–65k range.
$72,000: Resistance Zone and Trap
Technically, the $72,600–$73,200 range is critical. Around 149,000 BTC has accumulated here. If the price approaches this level, breakeven investors may close positions. Current whale accumulation may not absorb this supply completely, making $72,000 a significant hurdle.
Actually, to understand why Bitcoin hasn’t risen, looking only at technicals isn’t enough; psychological resistance is at play as well. Unless $72,000 is conquered, selling pressure may persist, limiting upward attempts.
Technical Scenarios and Possibilities
Bitcoin reacted from $60,000 and tested $72,000 resistance but failed. It now trades in the $64–65k range. Constant support testing weakens the structure, actually.
If, by some miracle, Bitcoin maintains above $72,000, the OTE (Fib 0.79–0.705) zone between $86,700–$89,950 could be tested. However, within the current trend, these moves may remain short-term pullbacks; there’s no need to rush.
Market Divergence and Real-Time Pulse
Prediction markets still support $75,000, while on-chain data and large investor activity paint a more cautious picture. The under-$60,000 scenario remains possible at 12%.
This divergence shows a hesitant market; whales are accumulating, but some remain cautious. Actually, monitoring the market pulse is essential; the energy required for a major breakout is not yet in place.
This analysis reflects Polymarket data, recent whale movements, and Bitcoin’s last 12-hour price fluctuations to capture the real-time market pulse.
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