Haciyev Reşit 
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has remained under pressure in the final quarter of the year, leaving investors facing continued uncertainty. Global economic fluctuations, shifts in central bank monetary policies, and geopolitical risks are significantly influencing Bitcoin prices. While short-term price movements point to high volatility, long-term expectations remain widely debated, with analysts offering divergent views.
Analysts emphasize that 2026 could be shaped by both strong upside potential and sharp downside risks, urging investors to be cautious when forming their strategies. This uncertain environment suggests that short-term volatility in Bitcoin is likely to persist, requiring market participants to act carefully.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Outlook
Some analysts anticipate a short-term recovery for Bitcoin. Market analyst Bay Wall Street argues that current liquidity levels are too weak to support a major sell-off and instead could allow Bitcoin to rise into the $98,000–$104,000 range. These levels align with large liquidity pools and unresolved fair value gaps.
According to Wall Street, however, such a move would not mark the beginning of a lasting bull market, but rather a temporary bounce designed to attract late buyers. In other words, it may present opportunities for short-term traders, while still warranting caution.
Bitcoin Price Forecast for 2026
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, highlights that 2026 will likely be a year full of uncertainty for Bitcoin. Options market data suggest that the probability of Bitcoin trading around $50,000 or rising to $250,000 by year-end is nearly equal—illustrating how open the market is to both bullish and bearish outcomes.
Thorn notes that key drivers shaping Bitcoin’s price include macroeconomic pressures, changing central bank policies, and global political risks. These factors are expected to amplify short-term price swings, making risk-aware strategies essential. According to his analysis, investors should be prepared for heightened volatility in 2026 and consider portfolio diversification to better manage risk.
Long-Term View: $250K Still on the Table
Despite short-term risks, Thorn maintains a long-term bullish outlook. He believes Bitcoin could move toward $250,000 by late 2027, supported by lower long-term volatility and growing institutional adoption. Analyst Sykodelic echoes this optimism, arguing that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to global liquidity and gold, with a fair value around $153,000.
On the other hand, several analysts see significant downside risk in 2026. Lark Davis suggests the cycle has peaked and expects prices to fall from around $126,000. Fidelity’s research also points to 2026 as a bearish year, identifying $65,000–$75,000 as a strong support range. Bay Wall Street similarly expects the first major reset to occur between $64,000 and $70,000.
Assessment
Short-term price spikes in Bitcoin are possible, but throughout 2026 both bullish and bearish scenarios are likely to continue shaping the market. Investors should factor in Bitcoin’s high volatility, macroeconomic risks, and potential geopolitical impacts when diversifying their portfolios. Sudden price swings and unexpected market movements make caution essential. At the same time, long-term optimism remains alive, with $250,000 price targets still in play—supported by increasing institutional interest and global liquidity trends.
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