Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $79,500 in mid-November after an 11-day decline from roughly $106,000. This drop represents a significant correction, but a rapid rebound to approximately $88,000 has traders debating whether a local bottom has formed.
On-chain data shows that large holders continue to sell. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000–10,000 BTC remain net sellers, while smaller investors have also been gradually reducing their positions over the past 60 days. This leaves limited support for the market from retail participants.
Futures Stress and Market Pressure
Market observers note serious stress in Bitcoin’s futures markets. According to analyst Darkfost, long liquidations have reached levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022. October and November liquidation events mirror past crises, highlighting the market’s heavy leverage.
Meanwhile, mid-sized wallets holding 10–1,000 Bitcoin have been steadily accumulating, helping stabilize the price after the sharp drop from $106,000 to $79,500. Still, the ongoing distribution from large whales prevents a strong trend reversal.
Analysts Weigh In on a Possible Cycle Low
Analysts are divided on whether $79,500 marks a cycle bottom. Crypto Dan notes that short-term holders capitulated near $80,000, a pattern historically linked to local lows. Conversely, CryptoOnchain points out that long-term holders have distributed roughly 63,000 Bitcoin, signaling a transfer of wealth to newer investors.
Some commentators draw parallels with the COVID-19 crash, suggesting the market could recover without revisiting recent lows if momentum strengthens. However, other analysts warn that several bear-market signals are already visible, urging caution even if a final push higher is possible.
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